Rory Stewart: After a tough no deal Britain would flourish

Tory leadership candidate Rory Stewart says that if Britain is forced out of the EU this autumn then it would be tough – but Britain would eventually come through and in spite of it, flourish. In an interview with Reaction – for the Reaction podcast – he contemplates the situation if President Macron blocks a further extension to Article 50.

Stewart has taken one of the most robust anti-no deal stances of all the leadership contenders, alongside Jeremy Hunt who referred to the “political suicide” of no deal, and Sam Gyimah who is advocating a second referendum. Stewart has made clear that there is no majority for no deal in parliament, and MPs would do all they can to block a Prime Minister from pursuing it.

However, at the other end of things there is the European Union. The UK was granted a third extension to Article 50 until the 31st October. After that date the UK will either: leave the EU with whatever deal it has found a majority for; no deal; revoke Article 50; or request another extension. An extension has to be approved by all 27 EU member states, and each one has a veto.

The suspicion has been for a while that Macron will use his veto and kick the UK out with no further extension and no deal. Despite his vested interests in keeping the 19 newly elected Lib Dem MPs from the UK in the European Parliament, Macron is concerned about the UK’s messy politics from complicating the European project. What will he do if the UK comes knocking for another extension in October?

Stewart says, that if Macron uses his veto and kicks the UK out Rory Stewart – avid anti-no dealer – says “there’s absolutely nothing we could do about it.”

He adds: “If the European Union chose to kick us out then my British nationalism comes to the fore and I say ok we’ll make this work. I think it’s going to be very difficult… I think we may have to put up protectionist barriers which currently Jacob Rees-Mogg and the others wouldn’t countenance, in order to protect our agricultural industry. And we go through a pretty tricky time in terms of consumer prices, inflation. I think we’re going to have bigger social welfare payments, I think interest rates are going to move and I think all of that is going to put a significant drag on our economy, but of course we’ll come through.”

Stewart says: “You know it will be a situation in which we will have a difficult time and all those people who are fed up with austerity will find that they are in a very tricky spending situation but we’ll come through it and in 5 or 10 years time Britain will flourish again.”

Previously Stewart has talked of the destructive forces no deal would have on the British car industry, warning that 850,000 British jobs could be at stake. And similarly he’s spoken about the effects of no deal on the agriculture industry, claiming that under WTO rules Britain will lose the bulk of its agriculture industry and the jobs that come along with that too.

But his comment on a forced no deal does demonstrate that Stewart needs room for manoeuvre, in case it happens and he is serving (as a cabinet minister) under one of his rivals.

Stewart has positioned himself in the anti-no deal camp with the likes of Hunt, Gyimah and Gove. On the other end of the spectrum there is Dominic Raab who has indicated he will suspend parliament to force through a no deal Brexit, and Boris Johnson who has said the UK will leave the EU on 31st October “deal or no deal.”