Rugby World Cup final prediction: New Zealand are heading for a record-breaking fourth victory

“Doubtful it stood, as two spent swimmers that do cling together and choke their art.”

Who could have guessed that William Shakespeare and William Webb Ellis had so much in common? Talk about your eternal verities. 

I refer, of course, to England’s titanic showdown with reigning world champions South Africa in last week’s Rugby World Cup semi. Unfortunately for England it was also titanic in the sense that their unlikely run to the final was ultimately sunk.

You read it here first, though it was hardly clairvoyance. England will kick, South Africa will scrum. No scrum, no win, another eternal truth and one which the boys in white discovered the hard way. When Joe Marler’s legs finally went at around the 50-minute mark, England’s eight were thereafter on roller skates. The arrival of Ellis Genge and Kyle Sinckler as a supposed counter to the Bok “Bomb Squad” of bench-born heavyweights proved a mismatch. 

A shame. England had scrapped, countered, kicked, caught and tackled their opposition to a frustrated standstill up to that point and led until the final minutes. 

But, a wet weather game plan notwithstanding, they never looked like scoring a try and a botched line-out throw and a shunted scrum, which saw hooker Jamie George pop his head out of his crushed front row like whack-a-mole, ruined the two chances they had.

As for South Africa, well, one mustn’t underestimate what it takes to maintain such disciplined focus on a recovery plan. They got close to the England line once and, as is their wont, launched giant sized lock RG Snyman at the line from close range. 6’ 9”, 19 odd stone and a berserker’s haircut. Try Springboks and they were back in the game.   

Thereafter, they relied on the elevating arm of ref Ben O’Keeffe to keep them well-supplied with scrum penalties and Handré Pollard punted over the winner from range.

Boo! Now, all that’s left is the rather sour taste of a racial abuse allegation. It seems an unlikely one – though South Africa have done everything but deny it – while World Rugby has said there is insufficient evidence to charge Bongi Mbonambi, leaving the Rugby Football Union and the permanently angry of social media incandescent. 

No such dramatics in the other semi where Argentina took on a recovering All Blacks. Dismantled by  France in the opening game, New Zealand have proven another eternal truth in their famed ability to learn quickly. They have improved with every game and taken Ireland, a pre-tournament favourite, out of the competition in a last-gasp quarter-final epic. 

In the semi, the All Blacks simply annihilated the South Americans in a master class of all the things the Kiwis do well. Endless, perfect basics until the final whistle, an edge-of-legality domination of the breakdown and a denial of the opposition’s source of comfort.

Like South Africa, the Argentinians take pride in their go-to: the scrum. The All Blacks met them there and beat them. Suck ‘em in and spin it out. New Zealand’s wingers were running in unopposed with the regularity of rush hour tube trains. 

Like all exhibition matches, it lacked tension. You’re only invited to admire.

So, England and Argentina now have thinking to do. The two sides meet in the third-place play-offs. For all the over-achievement of getting so far, both sides are short fundamentals and come up shy of what it takes to challenge the Poseidon and Zeus of New Zealand and SA. Some wholesale reconstruction required. That’s for the future.

Now and more pressingly, to the final. A re-run of 1995 and the Rainbow Nation classic which saw Nelson Mandela and Springbok captain François Pienaar use the oval ball to unite a riven country and defuse a ticking bomb.

Each three-time winners, each hoping for a record-breaking fourth victory. 

My money went down on South Africa pre-tournament and I’ve said why. Power, physicality and pace. All underpinned by a kicker with a boot like a Ladysmith siege gun. ‘Twas ever thus. 

But the Boks have now climbed into the ring with opponents who have taken them the distance on four occasions. They huffed and puffed against England and only at the last did they blow the house down. There’s an undoubted heaviness of tread creeping in and the distraction caused by the investigation into what Bongi Mbonambi may or may not have said to Tom Curry will have been unhelpful.

That said, the dragon always has one swing of the tail left. Stand well clear. 

By comparison, New Zealand look daisy-fresh and have come up on the rails almost unseen. 

They too have players sounding their last hurrah and feeling the age in their knees. Eighty minutes, one last heave. Out in a blaze of glory. Run ‘em ragged.

It’s make your mind up time. 

Damn the bet. It’s New Zealand. Back in black. 

Write to us with your comments to be considered for publication at letters@reaction.life