Russia arms Iran, advises Houthis as wider Middle East war beckons

Russia is bolstering the West’s adversaries across the Middle East this week as tensions flare following the assassination of Hamas’ Haniyeh in Tehran by suspected Israeli intelligence.

Russia’s former defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, was sent to Iran on Putin’s behalf Monday to discuss “all-around cooperation” with its new President and other top military officials. The publicised meeting comes only days after Khamenei pledged vengeance against Israel, signalling that Russia will stand by their allies in Tehran in some capacity upon a wider war.

According to the New York Times, the meeting spurred the delivery of advanced radar and air defence systems from Russia to Iran. While no specific details have been revealed, there is speculation that S-300, and possibly even advanced S-400, missile defence systems are being transferred. These surface-to-air systems are capable of downing fighters such as the F-15s and F-16s, which constitute the bulk of Israel’s air power, and could even threaten the IAF’s stealth F-35s. 

Russia’s transfers thus complicate an Israeli preemptive strike, which is reported to be under serious consideration. 

Shoigu’s Iran meeting coincided with a US national security briefing on Monday in which President Biden and his team made preparations for an Iranian offensive. In a statement after, a spokesman said the Administration is urgently “encouraging de-escalation”, and sending messages to Iran via intermediaries that it is “very much not in their interests to launch another attack on Israel”. 

Putin also offered a note of caution to Iran, requesting a restrained and calibrated military response if they choose to strike Israel. His alliance with the Islamic regime has been greatly strengthened in recent years as Iran has provided Russia with crucial drones, munitions, and ballistic missiles in their war against Ukraine. However, that partnership’s limits will be tested as Iran mulls over its options for retaliation.  

Russia also appears to be building a relationship with the Houthis, who have terrorised the Red Sea shipping corridor since late October. According to a US Official, Russian military intelligence officers have been advising and training the Yemeni group for several months. 

Over this period, the Houthis have sunk several international commercial vessels, killed a number of sailors, downed several costly American drones, and have even managed to hit Tel Aviv with a fatal strike. Russia’s support for the group is especially provocative given the Houthis’ proclivity for targeting internationals and their recent threats to wage war on their neighbours.

The US and others, including Saudi Arabia, are pressurising Russia not to send cruise missiles to the Houthis, which Putin has reportedly been considering in response to NATO support for Ukraine. 

The vulnerabilities exposed by the July Houthi attack on Tel Aviv were on display once again today as several Israeli civilians were injured by Hezbollah drones. The iron dome’s lapses have raised alarm amongst many, who fear that a renewed Iranian air assault could inflict far more damage a second time around. 

Israeli air defences were not the only ones tested in the past day, as a rocket attack on American forces in Iraq left five soldiers injured, one critically. This barrage marks the most serious attack by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq since their January assault which killed three American servicemen in Jordan. 

Israel’s war in Gaza and Palestine appears unshaken by the region’s spiralling instability, as the IDF claims to have killed dozens of militants in the strip today and several others in bombardments on the West Bank’s Jenin. The Palestinian Authority alleges the casualties were civilians, and its head, Mahmoud Abbas, denounced Israel’s Haniyeh assassination as an intentional effort to “prolong the war and expand its scope”.

The spectre of a greater regional war, or even world war, hangs over the coming days as the West and Israel await the response of Iran, its proxies, and now Russia as well.

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