Russia is tightening its grip on the Sahel

Here comes summer! The Americans are packing, the French are sulking, and the Germans are putting their towels down before more arrivistes from Russia show up.  Of course, we’re talking about Niger. 

This week, the German defence ministry announced that the government of Niger had kindly allowed it to stay on at its military air transport hub in the capital, Niamey. The Germans were supposed to leave by this weekend. Instead, the 90 or so troops will hang about doing … no-one’s really sure what. The base did play a vital role in supporting German troops in Mali who were part of the UN peacekeeping mission there. But that’s gone – effectively kicked out by the military junta. 

The French have gone, from both Mali and Niger, and their entire strategy for the Sahel region may have gone with it. Even the supply of Nigerian yellow cake, used for uranium enrichment in French nuclear power plants, is no longer certain. Instead, Niger is negotiating with Tehran to supply the Iranian nuclear “project” with hundreds of tons of concentrated uranium powder. 

Niamey has given the Americans a deadline of 15 Sept to leave. One hundred military personnel have left, one thousand are still to go. The US built the expensive drone bases they were in to provide Sahelian governments, and their western allies, reconnaissance which was vital in the battle against the region-wide Islamist insurgencies. A wave of military coups, including in Niger has put paid to that and left the Americans and French searching for alternative locations.  

Into this gap, having probably had a hand in creating it, comes the Kremlin. Russian troops, and the Africa Corp mercenaries (formerly Wagner Group) are arriving in force. They operate in Libya, Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Sudan, the Central African Republic and may soon show up in Chad, Senegal, Togo, and, given the president of Guinea-Bissau’s recent declaration that his country was a “permanent and loyal ally” of Moscow, quite possibly there as well. A Russian air defence system has shown up in Niger and military instructors are already training local forces. 

Moscow can offer troops to protect the corrupt leaders of many Sahelian countries and supply their armed forces with ammunition, equipment, and drones. All of this comes without irritating questions about good governance and human rights. The newly formed Alliance of Sahel States (Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso) tends not to worry too much about such things whereas the American negotiations to stay in Niger partially foundered on Washington’s demand for a timetable for the country to return to civilian rule. 

What’s in it for Russia? Gold, diamonds, diplomatic support at the UN, a trade route, the ability to push migrants towards Europe to foment instability, and possibly a friendly port on the Atlantic. Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic all look like done deals, Chad, Senegal and Togo are in play.

So is Libya where at least two thousand Russian troops and mercenaries have shown up so far this year, bolstering those from the Wagner Group/Africa Corp already there. America’s spy satellites have watched at least five Russian ships delivering supplies of “something” to the port of Tobruk.

And what’s in it for Germany to stay on in Niger, a lonely European outpost in a sea of hostility and Russian influence? That is the point. The military junta gets to have a leading EU nation operating in its capital and acting as a conduit to the trading bloc; after all, you wouldn’t want to have too many eggs in one basket. And Germany gets to be the conduit for talks about aid, yellow cake, diplomacy, and, one day in the future, for the European road back into the Sahel. But probably not this decade.

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