Russia-US summit: high stakes, no progress
Russia has reassured the US that it “doesn’t intend on invading Ukraine”, and that the ominous build-up of 100,000 troops along the border is just “typical manoeuvring.”
Wendy Sherman, US Deputy Secretary of State, reported the remarks as top diplomats from Moscow and Washington concluded an intense eight hours of negotiations in Switzerland today.
Yet despite Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, insisting “there is no reason to fear some kind of escalatory scenario,” signs are emerging that little concrete progress was made in Geneva during the first day of a week of talks aimed at de-escalating tensions over Ukraine.
After talks had wrapped up for the day, Ryabkov repeated Moscow’s demand that no more countries should be invited into Nato. Sherman insisted the US had been firm in pushing back on any proposals that are out of the question, including the Kremlin’s demand for an end to Nato expansion.
Most officials are sceptical that these high-stakes negotiations will lead to any breakthrough. Indeed, Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s general-secretary, has already warned that the western alliance is prepared for “a new armed conflict in Europe”.
For the US and Western allies, the aim of the summit is to dissuade Russia from invading Ukraine. Whereas Moscow is essentially demanding an end to Europe’s post-Cold War security architecture. This includes withdrawing Nato forces from countries in central and Eastern Europe and, crucially, a pledge that Ukraine will never be allowed to become a Nato member.
The US has already said it is prepared to make concessions on missiles, so there’s a chance that the two countries will form a mutual agreement to limit missile deployments and military exercises on the continent. This would essentially be a renewal of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, that the Trump administration pulled out of in 2019 after Russia was accused of breaching its provisions.
Many of Russia’s main proposals, however, are non-starters for Western officials. As Putin is well aware, the US has long insisted that a sovereign state’s right to apply for Nato membership is not negotiable.
Of course, the hope is that Russia is setting bold and unrealistic demands as a bargaining strategy, anticipating that it will have to settle for less, brandishing even a small concession as a big win.
The real fear is that Russian diplomats aren’t looking to reach any sort of agreement but are instead deliberately seeking unrealistic demands, knowing full well they’ll be rejected, in order to create a pretext for an invasion Putin has already decided on. Whether or not the week-long summit is a piece of political theatre, the US is, for the time being at least, playing along.