Scientific advisers call for action after a new wave of cases

In a televised address to the nation earlier today, the government’s chief scientific adviser warned the UK could see 50,000 coronavirus cases per day by mid-October and “200-plus deaths a day by November” unless action is taken now.

The message from Sir Patrick Vallance was clear: if the number of cases “continues to double every week” then we will see a significant rise in deaths over winter. “The challenge, therefore, is to make sure the doubling time does not stay at seven days,” he said. “That requires speed, it requires action and it requires enough in order to be able to bring that down.”

Sir Patrick dismissed the idea that the recent surge in cases was due to increased testing. “We’ve seen the proportion of those testing positive increase,” he clarified, which would not have occurred if the surge is simply a result of more tests being carried out. He also warned that because only 8% of the population have already been infected, possible immunity to the virus is not yet widespread.

Sir Patrick spoke alongside the government’s chief medical adviser, Professor Chris Whitty, who warned of further disruption to normal life until a vaccine is developed and that “in this period of the next six months, I think we have to realise that we have to take this collectively, very seriously”.

Prof Whitty also said that despite the difference in risk amongst age groups and the fact that different regions of the UK were seeing cases rising at different rates, the surge in cases “is all of our problem.”

The idea that even those less at risk have a part to play in preventing the virus’s spread was a key theme. And while it was stressed that the figures were not a prediction, the picture being painted was bleak provoking fears of a second lockdown.

But there has been doubt cast on the plausibility of the advisers’ modelling. Firstly, the model assumes the current growth rate will continue but this is far from clear. There is disagreement amongst government advisers about whether the country is poised for an exponential surge in cases or a more gradual rise to be expected considering the time of year and the loosening of lockdown restrictions in recent weeks.

The second assumption is that we are seeing a doubling of the growth rate every seven days. The government’s own R number estimate of between 1.1 and 1.4 means a growth rate of between 2% and 7% per day. For infection numbers to double every week, the required daily increase is just over 10%.

The press conference paves the way for Boris Johnson’s speech tomorrow, in which he is expected to announce further restrictions. Johnson has made it clear that he’s reluctant to introduce another England-wide lockdown, but the alarming modelling could have been pitched to make anything short of a full lockdown seem like a generous reprieve for a fed-up country.

Sir Patrick and Professor Whitty emphasised that transmission at home and in social settings remains high, suggesting there could be further restrictions on people’s social lives and the hospitality sector. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has already said that additional lockdown restrictions will “almost certainly” be put in place in the coming days.

The press conference will also raise questions about whether the government is now outsourcing policy decisions to scientific experts. The obvious implication of the advisers’ stark warning that things cannot go on as they have been, is that even tighter restrictions should be introduced. The optics of two leading advisers unaccompanied by ministers will reinforce the idea that it is now scientists, not politicians, who are calling the shots.