Searching for Ukraine’s endgame through the fog of war

Debate over the outcome of the war in Ukraine tends to focus on how the government in Kiev, having somehow withstood the Russian onslaught, can hope to recover sovereignty over the entire scope of its territory. 

Vladimir Putin has said that he will only agree to withdraw his forces under certain conditions. First, Ukraine must commit to neutrality by giving up its ambition to join Nato, and possibly the EU. Second, it must acknowledge that Crimea – seized in 2014 – is Russian. Third, it has to recognise the two rebel-held enclaves of Donetsk and Luhansk, in the far east of the country, as independent states, free to join the Russian Federation. 

Unsurprisingly, the Ukrainian government has rejected Putin’s demands. President Volodymyr Zelensky, in full Churchill mode, accused Moscow of playing word games and vowed to continue the fight until every inch of lost territory has been regained.

The EU, on the other hand, has indicated that aid, rather than early membership of the bloc, is what is currently on offer, while Nato, by all accounts, has put joining the alliance on the back burner for the time being, and quite possibly for years to come. The West will insist on Ukraine’s right to exist as an independent country, but the precise shape and size of that country can no longer be guaranteed.  

No one knows how Russia’s “special military operation” will end. There are too many factors in play. But it is probably safe to say that Ukraine six months from now will not be a single jurisdiction, controlled exclusively from Kiev. Only if the Kremlin dictator is deposed, or otherwise disposed of, or in the unlikely event that he loses the will to fight, can there be any realistic hope that Russia will call its troops home. 

Most military analysts seem to think that the invasion will continue at a slow and grinding pace, with merciless artillery bombardment standing in for set-piece battles. Both sides are incurring heavy casualties, but only Ukraine, in spite of the brilliance and daring of its military and citizens, is being reduced to rubble. As time passes and resistance begins to falter, pressure must surely mount on Zelensky to come to the negotiating table. 

Should he do so, even with the West in his corner, the chief worry has to be that those portions of the Donbas region already occupied by separatists will de facto be ceded to Russia (as is the case already in Crimea), along, perhaps, with the port of Mariupol and the southern highway to Sevastopol. For that not to be true, Nato would either have to take its military support to a new level or else so turn the screw on Russia that it could no longer function. Both are possible but far from certain. 

In the former case, Putin (though humiliated by the performance of his forces) would claim the victory and, perforce, switch his attention to his country’s economy which, under the weight of existing sanctions, is in a state of incipient collapse. It is tempting to think that a new workers’ revolution, supported by oligarchs and the disaffected middle class, will mark the next chapter in Russia’s history. But that is for another day. As the commander of the ill-fated column that seems constantly to be bearing down on Kyiv without ever actually getting there would surely agree, we must not get ahead of ourselves. 

There is a long way to go in this most convoluted of imbroglios, with many twists and turns as yet unexplored. But though Ukraine, as a honed welterweight David against the surprisingly flabby Goliath of Russia, has so far avoided a knockout blow, it cannot expect to win the war. Only a miracle, or a dramatic change of mind by the US, or the emergence of a Von Stauffenberg figure in the Kremlin could tip the odds in Ukraine’s favour.  

Given the scale and impact of the Russian invasion, with its manifest inhumanity, it might be thought a touch unreasonable to refer to the “bigger picture”. Yet there is one and it needs to be addressed. 

Russia is a vast, mineral-rich country with a large army and ambitions to match. But it has a population of just 145 million, and falling.  Most Russians live within 500 miles of Moscow. Siberia and the far-eastern regions, though three times the size of Europe, have no more than 30 million inhabitants, engaged mainly in mineral extraction. 

One of the key reasons why Putin wants Ukraine back (and Belarus and the Baltic states) is that he is running out of people. Ukraine would add forty-four million, Belarus ten million more and the three Baltic states between them a further seven million. Even then, the total would fall short of 200 million, with less on the way. 

The EU, meanwhile, shorn of the UK, has a population of 448 million. Nato, including the US, UK and Canada, has more than twice that number – an impressive 948 million – meaning that the Atlantic Alliance, in addition to being significantly richer per capita than Russia, has seven times its manpower, with or without Ukraine. 

Throughout the Cold War, the Iron Curtain enclosed an impressive array of potential belligerents: the Soviet Union (with all its add-ons), Poland, East Germany, Hungary, Czechoslovakia (as was) and Bulgaria, with Romania and Albania in supporting roles. From the Kremlin, successive Soviet leaders could contemplate an empire that stretched thousands of miles in all directions. 

The new iron curtain, putatively being drawn between Nato and Russia, is a much more limited construct. It only really enfolds Russia itself, a failing nation with a falling population. The question has to be, does it make sense for 30 nations, led by the US, to define themselves in perpetual opposition to one rogue state. Does it make sense, at a time when climate change is fast approaching the point of no return, for Europe to spend astronomically-large sums every year for decades to come just to keep Russia in check? We didn’t do it in the 1990s, but wouldn’t it make more sense, once Putin is out of the picture, to actively encourage a new Russia that shares western values and is more interested in building the prosperity of its people than the chimera of raw power? 

But that, too, is a question for another day. In the meantime, glory to Ukraine!