Shadows of Putin and Orban hang over embattled Ukraine

While Hungary’s Orban was blocking Ukrainian accession to the EU, Russia’s Putin was busy sorting out the price of eggs.

Prime Minister Orban was at the EU summit in Brussels where the other 26 leaders supported beginning talks on Ukraine joining the bloc. President Putin was in Moscow enjoying his 4-hour televised Q&A marathon with selected members of the Russian public.

Putin treats this annual event much as kings, queens and grand viziers of old enjoyed dispending largesse to the great unwashed whilst sadly shaking their heads at the incompetence of their officials. Pensioner Irina Akopova complained, via video link from her kitchen table, that the price of eggs has rocketed – “Vladimir Vladimirovich, take pity on pensioners!  …Sort this out, we have no one to turn to”. Vladimir Vladimirovich duly apologised for this terrible state of affairs before adding “…but this is a failure of the government’s work… I promise that the situation will be corrected in the near future.” And lo, it emerged that earlier this week the government had said it would exempt 1.2 billion eggs from import duty in the first half of 2024 to rein in prices. Set up? Surely nyet!

Of more interest to most of the world’s media gathered in Moscow were his comments on international relations, specifically Ukraine. With one eye on Brussels, and another on Washington, he suggested that it looked like foreign aid was dwindling for Ukraine. “Excuse my vulgarity, but everything is being brought in as a freebie….And it seems that they are gradually running out.”

Putin insisted there would be peace “When we achieve our objectives” and repeated those objectives as denazification, demilitarisation, and Ukrainian neutrality. But, amid a bellicose statement there was a hint that eventually he would accept negotiations: If they don’t want to come to an agreement, then we are forced to take other measures, including military ones. Or we will agree on certain terms.”

He denied rumours of a second mobilization saying: “The stream of our men who are ready to defend the interests of the homeland with weapons in their hands is not diminishing…Why do we need a mobilisation?”  However, he didn’t mention how many of the ‘volunteers’ were currently serving in the penal battalions Russia has formed after emptying its prisons. Nor was there any mention of what might happen after Putin wins the Presidential elections in March.

As he was speaking the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was giving a press conference in which he warned: “If Putin wins in Ukraine, there is a real risk that his aggression will not end there.” There had been a similar warning from Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky ahead of the EU summit who said: “If Moscow receives a pass from Brussels in the form of negativity towards Ukraine, Putin will surely use this against you personally, and against all of Europe.”

They don’t come much more negative than Viktor Orban when it comes to Ukraine. Putin’s best friend in the EU showed up in Brussels seemingly unperturbed at being isolated. On his way into the meeting, he spoke in English about reasonable ways forward, but then switched to his native tongue for the domestic audience: “Hungarians genetically don’t bow to pressure”.

He did though. A bit. In a surprise move he “removed himself from the room” to allow the other 26 EU leaders to unanimously approve opening accession talks with Ukraine. They also agreed that talks with Moldova will also take place, to give Georgia candidate status and for talks to begin with Bosnia “once the necessary degree of compliance with the membership criteria is reached.” It might take Ukraine until 2030 to actually become an EU member, but the decision is a huge boost to its aspirations and may also help its efforts to persuade countries to continue supplying it with arms and money.

Orban believes the proposals for EU accession are “unfounded and poorly prepared” but has compromised. Now we wait to see if he will stand firm on his opposition to granting Kyiv another €50 billion from the EU budget.

The EU leaders will haggle until the last minute, and possibly beyond. The Brussels summit has the hallmarks of being a Three Shirter as in  “It’s a two day event – pack three shirts.” Orban will come under enormous pressure to compromise on both issues.

On Wednesday, before setting off for Brussels, Germany’s Chancellor Scholz addressed the Bundestag and took the unusual step of naming Hungary as a problem. “Vladimir Putin bets on international support for Ukraine fading” he said, adding: “The danger that this strategy could ultimately work out cannot be denied.” After saying that almost all EU member states backed the €50 billion in aid he said, “Hungary in particular has not agreed yet”. He went on to argue that more EU decision-making needed to be done by qualified majority voting, especially when it comes to the accession process.

The Brussels summit comes just days after an emergency spending bill for $110.5 billion, which included funding for Ukraine, and was backed by the White House failed to be approved by Congress. Zelensky was in Washington on Tuesday and received vocal backing from President Biden, but his welcome on Capitol Hill was subdued. The days of him being feted by the American political elite are over.

Republican Senator J.D. Vance spoke words which were bubbling under the surface a few months ago but are now acceptable in public political discourse: “What’s in America’s best interest is to accept Ukraine is going to have to cede some territory to the Russians, and we need to bring this war to a close”. The percentage of American voters who believe the U.S. is doing too much to support Ukraine has been growing all year. Among Republican voters up to 70 per cent of those polled agree. An FT-Michigan Ross survey this week has it at 65 per cent. 

The EU decisions this weekend will be noticed in Washington. The Americans already ask why they have been doing more than all of Europe combined to defend a European country. If the EU aid is approved, it will be a huge boost for the country. If not, it will be a blow to morale.

The slogan of support of Ukraine – “As long as it takes” – will be tested even more severely in 2024. Putin believes he has more bullets than Ukraine has men. He knows that during the U.S. election campaign Biden will be under pressure to reduce support for Ukraine, and he thinks he can wear down the Europeans.

He knows the price of eggs, and hasn’t got them all in one basket.

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