Scale of sick note Britain laid bare

Exactly a month before Jeremy Hunt presents his much-anticipated Spring budget, newly revised figures on Britain’s Labour market have laid bare the scale of sick note Britain. The record number of Brits not working due to long-term ill health is even bigger than previously thought.

The ONS – which revised its labour market data after previously underestimating the country’s population growth – has revealed that 21.9 per cent of adults aged 16 to 64 were neither working nor jobhunting in period from September to November. This revision – up from its previous estimation of 21.3 per cent – means that the number of economically inactive people in Britain has risen by nearly half a million to 9.3 million.

The growing numbers who are opting out of Britain’s labour market is predominantly driven by rising ill-health. According to the new ONS figures, 2.8 million people in the UK now suffer from long-term health conditions – an upwards revision of 200,000, which is equivalent to the population of Norwich or Aberdeen. 

Since the pandemic, rates of ill health have been on the up – due to an increase in mental illness, the emergence of long covid as well as Covid’s “long tail”: in other words, those who missed health screenings or saw existing conditions deteriorate while Covid patients were prioritised. 

Sick note Britain has been perpetuated by record waiting lists for NHS treatment, which reached 7.6 million in November. 

Unsurprisingly, record rates of economic inactivity have gone hand-in-hand with a staggering rise in the number of individuals claiming disability benefits. While those claiming Disability Living Allowance – or Personal Independence Payments (PIP) as they are now called – has been on the rise for a decade, the number applying has doubled since before the pandemic.  

According to the Institute of Fiscal Studies, around 40,0000 new individuals of working age lodge a disability benefits claim each and every month, stating that they need financial help with their daily lives either because of physical or mental ill-health.

Around 5.5 million received disability benefits in total in 2022-23, but if the current pace of growth continues, it’s estimated that another two million people will be on them by 2030. That would comprise one in nine of the population. 

As Maggie Pagano wrote recently in Reaction, we don’t know if the numbers will keep rising exponentially or if they will start to tail off again as the worst scars of the pandemic start to heal. Though it’s safe to say that getting levels of economic inactivity back to pre-pandemic levels will be a major social and economic challenge in the coming years. 

Research indicates that a large chunk of the economically inactive do want to return to work for all the obvious reasons but need encouragement and support to do so. While severity of chronic health conditions will determine the relevance of such findings, analysis by the Centre for Social Justice suggests that at least 700,000 of those on “inactive” benefits want to work to some degree, and over more flexible back-to-work periods. The government is piloting two bespoke schemes – the Universal Support programme and the WorkWell scheme – to offer potential back-to-workers more support. 

But, as Pagano argues, everyone should be encouraged to play a part in their local community assisting with a “national back-to-work crusade”. Retired individuals, for instance, could offer coaching or mentoring. 

Tackling NHS waiting lists is also paramount. Even Rishi Sunak conceded that the government had “not made enough progress” on its pledge to cut the backlog. 

If the economically inactive can be encouraged back to work, there is certainly no shortage of jobs. On the contrary, the UK is still suffering massive worker shortages, with almost a million job vacancies. 

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