Stars realign as Saudi Arabia cosies up to China

A “new era” in relations with China has been announced. Not a “Golden Era” between China and the UK à la Cameron and Osborne, more an “Oily Era” between China and Saudi Arabia.

This brave new age was announced as President Xi Jinping’s plane flew into Riyadh escorted by the Saudi air force upon entering Saudi air space. Xi was then greeted by a 21-gun salute, the Saudi Royal Guard on Arabian horses, and a beaming Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The hand that the CIA suggests signed the order for the murder of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi shook the hand of the hammer of the Uighurs.

It was in stark contrast to the low-key welcome President Biden received when he visited in July to persuade the Saudis to raise oil production in response to the shortages created by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Biden wouldn’t shake “the hand” – instead proffering just a fist bump. The bump did not increase the pump.

So now the US watches as one of the world’s biggest energy producers cosies up to the biggest energy consumer. There will be no mention of human rights as they both promise to be “reliable” partners in energy supply chains and negotiate 34 new business deals worth $30bn which will include Chinese factories opening in Saudi Arabia. As Xi said, in an op-ed published in Saudi media, China and Arab countries would “continue to hold high the banner of non-interference in internal affairs”. You don’t get that from a US/Saudi summit, but you do get a pesky media asking about women’s right to drive, beheadings, and the murder of journalists in Saudi consulates. There was none of that from the visiting Chinese media.

Also in town – leaders and representatives from the five other Gulf Cooperation Council nations, as well as Egypt, Iraq, Sudan, Tunisia, Palestine, Morocco, and Lebanon. They take a similar view as does the Crown Prince – you can do business with a superpower that doesn’t bother with such irritations as human rights and good governance.

This is part of the subtext of the visit. When America has a global rival – much of the globe can choose who to do business with. In the current multi-polar world, many nations do not need to pick a side between the US and China. In the next few years, if relations between China and the US continue to deteriorate, a new form of bi-polar world may emerge in which the two giants will lean even more heavily on countries to fall into line behind them, but for now it’s possible to play them off against each other.

The Gulf States, for example, are quite open in stating they have no wish to be in either camp. But even that gives the Americans a headache. They have security assets throughout the Gulf, and they want to keep them.

The Saudis see China as the key partner in the Crown Prince’s ambitious Vision 2030 agenda to diversify the economy so it is not as reliant on fossil fuels, grow the domestic tourist industry, and help build mega-projects including completely new cities such as Neom. He’s looking well beyond 2030, as well. The Crown Prince knows that when the Americans, and others, have weaned themselves off Saudi energy, the rationale for underwriting Saudi security mostly disappears. This leaves the country prey to potential hostile powers which could include Iran.

But if one big brother no longer cares about you, there’s another that will. China is not just planting a foot in the region, it’s moving in.

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