Sunak finally gets Brexit done
The deal is finally done. On a momentous day for the UK and EU, Rishi Sunak and Ursula von der Leyen signed a landmark Brexit agreement on Northern Ireland after years of tortuous wrangling.
Standing alongside the European Commission President in Windsor this afternoon, the PM hailed the “decisive breakthrough” as the beginning of a new era in the relationship between Brussels and London.
The deal – dubbed the Windsor Framework – revises arrangements in the controversial Northern Ireland Protocol which governs post-Brexit trade in the province.
At the heart of the new agreement are three key issues: physical checks on trade to Northern Ireland from Great Britain, the role of the European Court of Justice, and Northern Ireland’s place in the UK’s internal market.
While details of the deal haven’t yet been made public, it’s believed that “trusted traders” will be allowed to skip costly customs paperwork between Great Britain and Northern Ireland if they declare that the goods are destined for NI rather than the EU.
The EU will no longer have the right to automatically launch infraction proceedings against NI if there’s a trade-related dispute, and a “Stormont brake” will allow the Northern Ireland assembly to stop new EU single market rules from applying in the region.
The deal also re-writes parts of the existing Protocol to allow Westminster to set VAT rates in Northern Ireland — something Brussels had claimed was impossible.
The agreement is the culmination of months of intense negotiations, and Sunak and von der Leyen were all smiles at the press conference this afternoon. (Von der Leyen also met the King, which ruffled feathers. The Hound has more on that here.)
Sunak has reason to be cheerful. Breaking the deadlock is a big political coup. But while the deal may be signed, the PM still has some hard-selling to do to persuade sceptics to back it. He has been beavering away behind the scenes in recent days to win over senior Brexiteer backbenchers.
The PM confirmed in the press conference Q&A today that MPs will get a vote on the deal, although it won’t be immediate. Sunak said he would give all parties time to digest and study it.
The delay also buys Sunak more time to carry on his charm offensive. There were whispers last week that as many as 100 Conservatives could rebel against any deal. In reality, the number is likely to be closer to 20.
Even so, Sunak can’t afford to take chances. As Mark Fox writes on Reaction today, if the PM is forced to rely on Labour votes to push the deal through it would torpedo his authority over his parliamentary party.
And then there are the Unionists. All eyes are on the Democratic Unionist Party and how it will respond to the agreement. While the DUP’s leader, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, couldn’t prevent Sunak from sealing the UK-EU deal, he can continue to block a new government from being formed in the devolved administration at Stormont, which has been mothballed for over a year because of the protocol feud.
If Sunak can get Stormont back up and running in time for the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday agreement in April, he’ll be able to credibly sell the idea that he’s the can-do prime minister, succeeding where his predecessors failed.
But the DUP has said it won’t be rushed on passing a verdict on the deal, all too aware that the devil, as ever, is in the detail.
Business leaders and the financial markets, however, did like the principles of the deal and celebrated a new chapter ahead in UK/EU relations. The pound rose to $1.20.
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