Sunak riding high north of the border

Rishi Sunak is still a Conservative superstar, his popularity remaining sky-high throughout the pandemic. In Scotland today, the Chancellor will tout the fact that his coronavirus support package is paying the salaries of around 900,000 furloughed Scottish workers. It is indeed one of the few elements of the British response that does not include a small-print about separate rules set by devolved administrations.

Ordinarily, it would be extraordinary that this Winchester and Oxbridge-educated former hedge-fund manager has a wide base of support north of the border. But these are the strangest times in recent political history, and the Treasury’s record-breaking borrowing appears to have done the trick. Sunak’s approval in Scotland stands at +7, compared with -51 for Boris Johnson and a dismal -57 for Michael Gove, the most senior Scot in the British government.

The Chancellor would do well, however, to note that popularity in politics is a fleeting commodity. Indeed, we are fast approaching the moment when almost every headline about government spending will be negative news. The battle over the winding down of the furlough scheme will intensify when parliament returns from recess, with Labour seeking to present Sunak as a bogeyman for sticking by his arbitrary deadline.

Then will come the drip-drip of the inevitable redundancies to follow. The country has grown used to record employment in recent years, so the news of the restaurant down the road shutting, or the town’s biggest factory mothballing, will be a particularly stressful experience for the public. It will also be amplified by left-wing nationals and Remain-aligned public figures seeking revenge on an administration they have long reviled.

For the Chancellor’s favourability ratings, this experience will be akin to the crash after a cocaine high – something the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster might know a thing or two about – with Sunak’s decline occurring suddenly and precipitously. Perhaps he is well prepared for that eventuality, ready to bat away the attack lines being honed over the summer recess, but it will nevertheless be a uniquely stressful moment for a man who entered politics just five years ago and became Chancellor in February.

If Sunak has time to read anything in the coming weeks, he should take a look at Pault Hart and Karen Tindall’s analysis of Gordon Brown’s popularity during the Great Recession. They note that in the immediate aftermath of the run on Northern Rock, Brown’s popularity rose sharply, with Labour extending its lead over the Tories from five to thirteen points. It was against this backdrop that Brown delivered his “age of turbulence” speech, in which he hailed the strength of the British economy and its ability to recover from turmoil.

At a time of acute crisis, the public sought reassurance, and Brown delivered it. He appeared in control and even downplayed the Northern Rock disaster as the natural byproduct of an increasingly fluid global market. But as we now know, an extraordinary economic downturn soon engulfed the world, unleashing a crisis beyond the control of any single government, and within a year Brown was successfully characterised as blundering, indecisive, and profligate with public funds.

Sunak had his own version of the “age of turbulence” speech at a press conference in March, when he reassured the British public that “this government will give you all the tools you need to get through this. We will support jobs, we will support incomes, we will support businesses, and we will help you protect your loved ones. We will do whatever it takes.” It was the most pivotal speech of his career, delivered with clarity and empathy.

But Sunak remains a determined fiscal conservative, according to sources close to him, and soon the need to do “whatever it takes” will shift towards restoring long-term fiscal credibility. Amongst the Chancellor’s non-traditional supporters, this will be an unforgivable sin.