Sunak has ground for cautious hope

Last week, two dramas commanded the airwaves. First came the submersible. Millions of people clung to hope long after it was clear that tragedy had prevailed. Then we had Russia and the Wagnerian coup, a theme worthy of that composer. This time, hope had more resources, or so it seemed, for a few tense hours. Not that there was any easy path to a better future in Russia/Ukraine. The experts seemed to agree on one point. If Putin did fall, he would not be replaced by Thomas Jefferson. General Cutthroatovich, or whoever did emerge, would not be a liberal democrat. But he might at least be prepared to negotiate a way out of the conflict. Now, Putin is back in charge.

Or is he? He must surely have suffered a serious loss of prestige. What are Russian mothers thinking, as their sons prepare to be marched towards the meat grinder? What are the conscripts themselves thinking? In 1917, many of their forbears climbed out of the trenches and walked home. The Czarist Empire collapsed,  shortly followed by all hopes for benign change. This time, a post-Putin Russia might offer a better way forward. Although it would probably be suspicious, nationalistic and oppressive, there could be some medium-term prospect of favourable political change.

Moreover, there would be less risk of a nuclear conflict. It has always been hard to envisage Mr Putin simply accepting defeat. His overthrow would ease that particular source of tension. As it is, we are still condemned to uncertainty and menace.

The UK is equally uncertain. In yesterday’s interview, the PM kept the ball out of his stumps. But there was no question of Bazball, nor should there have been. Mr Sunak’s principal message was “hold your nerve.” Indeed, there was more than a hint of Margaret Thatcher’s favourite phrase: “There is no alternative.” The Prime Minister’s dilemma is easy to describe. First, he needs to deal with inflation, which usually means restraining economic growth. A few months ago, the hope was that inflation would now be falling sharply. In that case, there could have been a change of priority, to economic growth, assisted by tax cuts: all in time for the election.

So last week’s inflation figures were a grave disappointment and few analysts are confident that improvement is imminent. Sometimes, one can form the impression that economic forecasting is one of the less exact branches of astrology.  Suddenly, the electoral timetable is looking much less helpful. At least in private, Labour will be quoting the Clintonites’ dictum from 1992: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

It usually is, when elections come round. The average British voter simply wants to know when he will feel better off, and the Prime Minister cannot give any guarantees.

Yet in his case, there is an alternative. The average voter wants an answer to other vital questions. What is happening to the UK, and to the world? Obviously, a lot has gone wrong, so why did this happen and how can we ensure that there is no recurrence?

That should give Rishi Sunak grounds for cautious hope. He has formidable powers of analysis – and he has the right instincts. Mr Sunak was always a Brexiteer. Unlike some of his incautious Brexiteeer colleagues, he knew that there would be no miraculous transformation. Even before the two five-letter words, Covid and Putin, important EU politicians wanted to punish the Brits. Brexit did not mean that we had invented the Philosopher’s Stone. Hard pounding would be needed.

Rishi Sunak is also a tax cutter, just as Margaret Thatcher was. But like her, he does not believe in unfunded tax cuts whose value would be rapidly eroded by inflation. As any wise Tory should, the new Leader lives in the real world and has no patience with fantasies.

He needs to explain all this, as well as telling the British people how he intends to ensure that more public services actually serve the public. That all gives him advantages over Keir Starmer. Sir Keir is a closet Remainer. Tax cuts are not a cause near to his heart. As for the public services, he is far more likely to pay attention to the unions than to the long-serving public.

Labour will insist that the Tories have been in power for far too long and that it is now time for a change. Rishi Sunak can point out that he is the change and that, unlike Keir Starmer, he has a strategy.

One precedent is in his favour. In peacetime, no prime minister able to articulate a convincing strategy has ever been chucked out by the voters. Of course, precedents are there to be reset. But Mr Sunak can try to avoid that fate if he gives the electorate grown-up answers to serious questions. These are serious times. A  prime minister who levels with the voters and gives a serious response to their anxieties might still persuade them to stick with his strategy. He may not be able to deliver as much as he had hoped on the economy – but it is also, the politics, stupid.

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