Sunak’s first party conference speech as PM and Tory leader looks set to be his last

“Do you think we can still win?” is the standard conversation opener for representatives at this year’s Conservative Conference. The question is usually asked more out of curiosity than in search of comfort. My factual reply is that of course it is possible. But that is as likely to be rebutted as welcomed. A young aide to a Tory MP told me openly that he was going to vote Labour.

As always in the evenings the foyer of the Midland Hotel becomes a steaming mass of humanity as do the private party rooms. The Conservatives like to party like there’s no tomorrow perhaps because this year there isn’t one. 

It is a sign of danger for any political movement when the general public stops listening to them. In comparison to other years the indifference of the locals negotiating the cordon that has partially shut down their city centre is striking. What protesters there are braving the Manchester drizzle have largely come up from Westminster with the politicians, including the EU-loving loud mouth Steve Bray who will have delighted his online followers by getting involved in a punch up.

This year’s conference slogan lacks the force of “take back control” or “get Brexit done”. “Long term decisions for a brighter future” is so cumbersome that I keep having to check I have it down right. Those words have been the albatross hung over the conference, as ministers refuse to confirm the expectation that they will cut the HS2 link to Manchester, or even to confirm when they will confirm their decision. 

In this important political season the clumsy and drawn out mishandling of the announcement, as previously over watering down net zero measures, shows that communications is one area of government where Prime Minister Sunak has yet to restore competence. 

Over the past four decades attending Conservative gatherings, I have grown used to the deferential hush as the leader of the moment sweeps past to the next stop in their packed programme of social engagements. This year, Sunak has been a negligible presence, presumably holed up in his rooms with high roller donors and strategists when not swelling the sparse crowd listening to his ministers in the main auditorium. After a year in charge his image and name do not appear on any of the official merchandise on the Conservative party stall. In 2022 they were ready with “In Liz We Truss” mugs which sold well, possibly as collectors’ items alongside Edward VIII Coronation memorabilia.

Nigel Farage was feted by passers by when he was in town for GB News.  Few disagreed with the rightwing pundit Tim Montgomerie who speculated that the Tory membership would happily elect Farage their leader if given the chance.

Yet this desultory mood may appeal to a substantial portion of the electorate: those who have gloomy view of politicians and are wooed by invitations to take back control of their own lives. Sunak’s offer is comparative, he pledges only to work towards “a brighter future” not a bright one. That is not the same as David Cameron’s “sunlit uplands”. In the view of one former minister, the pessimism exuded by pulling out of HS2 alone “has cost us our chances of being the largest party in a hung parliament.”

Sir Lynton Crosby is back with his trademark blunt pragmatism about the voters Sunak needs and those he does not. The PM is playing off the small town motorists against big city mass transit riders. Millions for potholes against many billions for rail. He is aiming for the same core vote which successfully delivered Brexit – the “citizens of somewhere” versus the “citizens of nowhere” as lauded by the chastened Theresa May. Ripping up planned high speed rail tracks may be unpopular with the public, including a majority of Conservative supporters. In practice, the campaign is gambling that the pre-election tax cuts they can credibly promise as a result of capital savings will win back the voters they need. For now the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is holding the line for fiscal responsibility. The hero’s welcome accorded Truss and her supporters spoke louder on what Tory activists want to see before polling day.

Sunak knows that many expect his first speech to conference as Conservative leader and Prime Minister will also be his last. He will build on the themes he has already laid out in the comments forced on him prematurely rowing back on net zero commitments. He has already laid out how he wishes to frame the choice between a Conservative and Labour government between “governing in the long-term interests of the country and making the tough but right decisions… or short-term politically motivated action, with no regard for the consequences”. 

Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves would reject this caricature of their intentions but the drumbeat of “you can’t trust Labour, they’ll cost you more in taxes and they won’t deliver anything better” has summoned a parliamentary majority in past general elections.

The Tory high command will target Labour’s credibility relentlessly until polling day. For his late night champagne reception for journalists and hangers-on, the party chairman Greg Hands festooned his suite with print-outs of the last Labour Chief Secretary’s notorious final message in 2010: “There is no money”. Reportedly there were even copies in the bathroom. Guests were also offered pairs of Keir Starmer flip-flops.

The Conservatives want to dwell on all Labour’s record over the past thirteen years in opposition. But Sunak does not want to stand on the record of the Conservatives in government since 2010, in spite of having been a minister for almost all of the past eight years. The long term plans he has committed to so far are decisions not to do things in the short term. His key pledges are negative: stop the boats, end the war or motorists, reduce inflation, stop HS2, cut the NHS waiting lists. He is the change candidate of negativity, promising not to allow things to go on happening. This may be uninspiring but the inferred question is whether Starmer is offering to do any better – and at what extra cost?

So far Starmer has been intimidated from offering hope or substantial change. New Labour’s jaunty adopted anthem “Things can only get better” does not fit the mood of these times. But if it does not, what it the point of voting Labour? 

Labour is riding high according to the opinion and has been buoyed up by the opposition parties routing the Conservatives in recent by-elections. Public expectations about the election outcome could shift dramatically this month if Labour fails to keep up its electoral momentum in the by-elections this month in SNP held Rutherglen and the Tory seats of Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth.

This Conservative conference in Manchester is flat. The expectations of the Conservatives are low, almost despairing. There is a fear of worse to come. That accords with the wider mood of much of the nation. So, yes, there is still a chance that they can win again.

Write to us with your comments to be considered for publication at letters@reaction.life