Taiwan braces for Chinese blockade
Chinese warplanes have entered Taiwanese airspace as fears grow that Beijing plans to blockade the island after Nancy Pelosi’s provocative visit yesterday.
The US House Speaker’s fleeting trip to Taiwan has enraged the Chinese Communist Party. China’s defence minister called it a “major political provocation” and said the US had “violated China’s sovereignty.” Xi Jinping views Taiwan as a renegade province and has staked his reputation on reuniting it with the mainland.
Pelosi’s trip has given Beijing the perfect excuse to ratchet up the war games. China plans to carry out an unprecedented series of military drills in six large areas of sea surrounding Taiwan, some of which encroach into the island’s territorial waters. The zones will be off-limits to all air and sea traffic from midday tomorrow until midday on Sunday.
Taiwan’s ministry of defence said this amounts to a “sea and air blockade”.
For China, hemming in Taiwan is much easier than invading it. Analysts estimate that an all-out assault could require two million troops. The People’s Liberation Army is thought to be as much as a decade away from being ready to invade.
Beijing hopes that a blockade, by contrast, would allow it to strong-arm the Taiwanese population into accepting reunification without a shot being fired. China’s military drills show that the option is very much on the table.
The ripple effects of severing Taiwan from the global economy would be felt far and wide. The island hosts the world’s most advanced computer chip company and produces almost two-thirds of the global supply of computer chips.
As the consequences of Pelosi’s visit play out, whether it was the right call or not will become clearer.
The trip did many things at once. It sent a signal to American allies in Asia that Joe Biden won’t buckle whenever Xi warns him that things could get nasty if the US interferes. In the geopolitical poker game, projection of power is power.
The trip was a warning shot to Beijing, although how it will be interpreted depends on the goals, constraints and psychology of the Chinese leadership. This is hard to know.
Yet the trip also exposed a split within the United States’ political and defence establishments on how to deal with the Taiwan question. The Pentagon advised against the trip, and Biden cited military officials who said the visit “was not a good idea right now.”
Biden has in recent months appeared to ditch the position of “strategic ambiguity” – refusing to be drawn on what the US response would be if China attacked Taiwan.
Instead, he’s pledged solidarity in the event of a Chinese military action. Whitehouse officials have rowed back on the President’s comments each time, saying US policy remains unchanged. The result is confusion rather than ambiguity.
Pelosi’s trip was certainly a gamble, and unintended consequences are inevitable. But the US has made its move, and the ball is now in Beijing’s court.