Ten ideas to think about differently, post-Ukraine war

Apart from suggesting that the ultimate objective of the West – led by the United States of America – is to ensure Vladimir Putin is deposed, I have refrained from making any short term predictions about the Ukraine war for the simple reason there are too many moving parts, too many people and too much information for armchair strategists to make any convincing short term predictions.

Yet oddly, we can start to see some fundamental changes in direction for societies, politics and markets which have been long building and which the war has initiated. As ever, these are mere discernible conjecture but worth stating nonetheless.

Russia

Russia is not a superpower; it is an aggressive middle-ranking power run by a corrupt despot. Our long term strategic objective is to complete the unfinished business of 1989 and to see Vladimir Putin is removed from power. This would be hugely positive. But in the meantime he can do a huge amount of violence and damage to Russia and its neighbours.

Energy security

We have been reminded of our dependence on hydrocarbons for so much of what is valuable in human life. But in the long term, that is a weakness we must remedy.

In the short term, the Government wants to increase North Sea production of both oil and gas. It is considering amending the new climate change certificates for new fields to consider energy security; increasing exploration in the Atlantic Margin and, to quote the Prime Minister, “give investors the confidence to invest.” This is in collision with various existing regulations in relation to climate change.

Children, beauty and feelings matter

Soft things like children, feelings, identity, emotions, beauty, neighbourliness, patriotism matter and make life worth living, not as a source of division, but togetherness. The same goes for European culture. Sometimes it felt like we had forgotten that.

The decline in the birth rate, the future of schools, the impact of first the pandemic and then the impact of the war on children are huge social issues. What is the point of messing up the present and not investing in the future?

The media matters

One positive aspect to emerge from the crisis is that the media, including social media, has broadly behaved itself and been a force for good. Sure, there is propaganda and disinformation around and the news is terrible. But, on balance, the media has behaved responsibly and endeavoured to report accurately. This is in contrast to some of the previous crises of the last few years.

This is proper journalism and Twitter has even been surprisingly full of expert commentary.

Sanctimony is no use

Sanctimony is not much use, especially in business and financial markets. Realism is back. How self-satisfied many of us could feel as we invested in ESG (Environment, Society and Governance) assets, and talked about it, while failing to support old-fashioned grimy things like defence, agriculture and oil and gas, leaving us all exposed when a dictator appears. In the long term, though, the environmentalists are right: we will have to wean ourselves off oil and gas.

No more culture wars please. Fracking wars instead

Cultural divisions at home made us weaker and need resolving. They have gone quiet. Frack or not to frack is the new culture war, but at least it is a conversation about something material.

Charity

Philanthropy is a vital pillar of society. It is remarkable the global charitable effort which has begun, including £150m collected by the Red Cross Disaster Emergency Committee in the UK in just one week and 100,000 people already signed up to house Ukrainian refugees.

European consciousness

The war has initiated a groundswell of pan-European consciousness, including in Britain, which will have lasting repercussions.

Britain’s relationship with the EU is unresolved. The EU itself is not a natural icon for European affection. But it is notable that two lots of people, extreme Remainers and Brexiteers, have been proven wrong on the same point: Brexit does not mean a fundamental severance with Europe, despite the attempts of some people to make it so. The truth is the relationship with the EU is our second special relationship, and it is ragged and still needs fixing.

China

The Chinese are not our allies. Equally, they are not our enemies, or not yet anyway, and Taiwan excepted, are not really interested in global domination, except insofar it is a commercial exercise. If Russia has its wings clipped, a more bipolar world may be more stable. It is interesting that the economic outlook for China has darkened recently.

An open society and its enemies

It is almost inconceivable that open, market-based societies with strong institutions and high levels of trust and innovation will not in the end overcome Putin. But we have already had a really big nasty lesson in the dangers of taking that for granted. Rhapsody is no substitute for realism. The spirit of 1989 lives on, but chastened. If it is to survive it is going to have to be wiser and more realistic than before.

George Trefgarne is CEO and founder of Boscobel, an independent strategic communications firm providing clients with bespoke financial PR & public affairs advice.