Will the coronavirus curfew drive the hospitality industry into the ground?

After a tumultuous summer, restaurateurs Gearoid Devaney and Xavier Rousett relaunched The Black Book, a late-night wine cave and restaurant in Soho, in early September.

August had been good to their other venues, with the “eat out to help out” (EOTHO) scheme helping to make up some of the losses from lockdown earlier in the year. Having secured a 3 am late-night license (a rarity in Soho) the pair were excited about their new venture. Tables were spaced for social distancing; staff were kitted out in PPE and tonnes of anti-bacterial hand gel had been purchased – they had worked hard to adapt to new standards.

The next eleven days ran smoothly, customers were respectful of the new rules and in the last week, the bar was able to take on more staff. Then, out of the blue, on the 21st September, Boris Johnson announced a 10 pm curfew, cutting the venues earning hours by a third.

One of the two founders, Rousett, is devastated by the latest curfew. “Three-quarters of our takings are done between 11 pm and 3 am. We might just end up doing 25% of the turnover we used to, that is a massive blow.” The minute management heard the announcement they knew they would have to lose half of their staff, “we already had to let go of a few people,” Rousett adds, “that is the immediate impact the decision had on our business.”

For some of Rousett’s other businesses in London, which serve breakfast, lunch and dinner, the curfew will have less impact. But for wine bars, late-night venues, and (almost-forgotten) nightclubs, a 10 pm curfew is the nail in the coffin for an industry particularly hard hit by the fallout from Covid-19.

In his speech to the House of Commons yesterday, the Prime Minister set a worrying timeline for the new restrictions; “unless we palpably make progress, we should assume that the restrictions I have announced will remain in place for perhaps six months.”

“I don’t know how Boris can announce six months without even knowing if it will be impactful,” says Rousett, “It is absolutely insane; the decision itself, the way it has been handled, the length, everything. It is always our industry in the headlines, I don’t think we deserve it.” Rousett’s confusion at the penalisation of the hospitality industry is well-founded. According to Public Health England, over the last four weeks, approximately 5% of total cases came from hospitality, compared to 45% in care homes.

The measures come after the UK’s Covid-19 alert moved from level 3 to level 4, meaning transmission is “high or rising exponentially.” Johnson told MPs yesterday that evidence shows the spread of the virus happens “later at night after more alcohol has been consumed.”

On BBC Breakfast Minister for the Cabinet Office, Michael Gove, reiterated this evidence saying the 10 pm curfew would have a “beneficial effect” on the spread of the virus, based on Belgium’s early adoption of the technique. But today The Times revealed The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies did not model the effect of a 10 pm curfew, with key members saying there was no evidence it would be effective.

For Ashley Letchford, manager of Aquum in Clapham, lockdown provided the perfect opportunity to transition his bars trading style from a “late-night club” with champagne bottle service to a more “accessible venue” with a focus on food and table service. The new business model proved a success and the bar found itself doing “seven times as much revenue during August on food than pre-lockdown,” partially thanks to EOTHO and were even able to take on more staff.

Normally closing at 3.30 am, the 10 pm curfew will have a devastating impact on the South-London based bar. “We are taking measures to create a third business model in a matter of months, it is a true test of entrepreneurial spirits. Obviously, we are supportive of the government measures, but it’s not great for business,” he says, “It’s one step forward, two steps back.”

It is a similar story for most bar and pub owners; August provided a cruel tease of near-normal only to be staring back down the barrel a few weeks later. “When it hit me yesterday, I fell into a very weird depression,” says Gareth Dore, pub and bar owner, “I’ve just taken on more staff, but I think we are going to have to let one person go already. All this is doing is pushing people back out of employment.”

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), there were 156,000 fewer young people in employment in the three months to July compared to the previous quarter; 16-24-year olds have been most starkly impacted by rising unemployment due to coronavirus. With the hospitality industry employing more young people than any other industry, this number is likely to continue to rise following revenue cuts due to the new curfew.

Like many others, Dore’s bar in Leamington Spa and pub in Windsor were experiencing a post-lockdown peak before the curfew was announced. “Those two hours between 10 pm and 12 am on Friday and Saturday nights, most hospitality venues make their most money then,” he says.

Having gone to extreme lengths to ensure his venues were covid-secure, Dore finds the new regulations maddening. “There is no sense to it. In my venues, we’re open till 12, so from 10 pm-12 am everyone would be seated on sanitised tables and chairs, with hand sanitiser around them, sticking stringently to the rule of six. We have all their track and trace information; we have made this a safe space,” he says. “All that the government is doing now is pushing everybody out of every bar, pub and restaurant at the same time.”

Like many others, Dore expects the curfew will encourage people to continue drinking and celebrating back at private residences after 10 pm, where social distancing, the rule of six and strict sanitisation regimes are less likely to be followed. “There is no sense to it,” he says.