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The dangerously flawed logic of an EU return to Russian gas
Those arguing that reopening flows of Russian gas into Europe would persuade Putin to stick to a ceasefire are failing to learn the lessons of history.
In a move that is already provoking a backlash, a number of EU officials have raised the idea of reopening flows of Russian gas into Europe, as part of a potential settlement to end the war in Ukraine.
According to three officials who spoke to The FT, those backing a return to buying Russian gas - which includes some German and Hungarian officials - argue that, aside from reducing Europe’s high energy costs, the move would encourage Moscow to the negotiating table, and give both sides a reason to implement and maintain a ceasefire.
Other Brussels diplomats involved in the preliminary talks are said to be furious at the mere suggestion of a return to Russian energy. “It’s madness … How stupid could we be to even think about that as an option?”, one told The FT, speaking anonymously.
Polish officials will no doubt fall into this latter category. Earlier this week, Poland’s President Andrzej Duda, insisted that pipelines running from Russia to Europe should be permanently “dismantled”.
Prior to Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, over 40 per cent of Europe’s gas supplies came from Russia. Over the past three years, European countries, Britain included, have made big efforts to wean themselves off Russian energy.
In 2024, gas from Russia made up around 10 per cent of the EU’s total supply and that figure has halved since January, when a contract still permitting Russian gas flows to reach Europe through a Ukrainian pipeline ended.
That Hungarians are amongst the EU officials advocating for a return to Russian energy is entirely unsurprisngly. Hungary’s leader, Viktor Orbán, alongside fellow Putin-friendly Slovakian PM Robert Fico, have been critical of the bloc’s sanctions on Russia from day one.
As for alleged German support, this is surprising insofar as Berlin is a key ally to Ukraine but less so when we remember that divesting from Russian energy has dealt an especially heavy blow to the German economy. On the eve of the war in Ukraine, Moscow provided a third of Germany’s oil, around half its coal imports, and more than half of its gas.
Germany's increasingly popular hard-right AfD party has already suggested that the Nord Stream gas pipelines - which were built by Russia's state-owned gas giant Gazprom and run between Russia and Germany - should resume operations.
The cost of European energy sky-rocketed following Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and, while it has recovered somewhat since, it has never returned to pre-war prices.
While the continent has largely shaken off its dependence on Russian gas, it has paid a price for doing so. Europe is now heavily dependent on liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US - which has acted as both a saviour and a costly alternative.
It’s expensive for several reasons: the complex process of liquefying the gas, the high cost of shipping it across oceans in specialised tankers and the fierce competition for supplies. European nations now have to outbid countries across the world, including China and India, to guarantee these vital shipments.
French President Emmanuel Macron has lashed out at the US for offering Europe LNG prices three to four times higher than prices on the American domestic market.
Trump, meanwhile, has threatened the EU with tariffs unless it buys more LNG from America. Meaning the bloc’s proposed return to Russian energy is an area in which he and his European ally Orban may find themselves at loggerheads.
While LNG is a costly alternative, any return to Russian gas dependency will cost Europe its energy security.
Any EU officials arguing that reopening flows of Russian gas into Europe would persuade Putin to stick to a ceasefire appear to be using the same naive logic that Germans relied on in the years and months leading up to February 2022.
Right up until Putin’s full-scale invasion, Berlin pressed ahead with its plans to build the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, designed to carry natural gas directly from Russia to northern Germany. The German gamble was that Putin wouldn’t invade Ukraine because Europe and Russia were locked into mutual dependence, with Europe needing gas and Russia containing no infrastructure to sell that gas elsewhere. Berlin ignored concerns raised by countries including Poland and Ukraine that the pipeline would further enable Putin to use natural gas as a weapon.
Nord Stream 1 was shut down following the outbreak of war in 2022, and Putin attacked Ukraine before Nord Stream 2 even went into operation, turning the entire project into a billion-dollar financial black hole.
German - and other EU - diplomats backing a return to Russian energy are failing to learn the lessons of history.
Caitlin Allen
Deputy Editor
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