The Taliban are calling the shots
The Pentagon has admitted that the US is relying on the cooperation of the Taliban in its evacuation efforts in Kabul. John Kirby, the Pentagon’s spokesman, said at a briefing today: “[The evacuation] does require constant coordination and deconfliction with the Taliban.” He added: “It is absolutely requiring of us to keep these lines of communication with the Taliban open.”
It’s a sign of how little control America has on how events in the country unfold. Joe Biden had hoped his symbolic decision to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan by 11 September 2021 – the 20th anniversary of the horrific 9/11 al-Qaeda terrorist attack – would bring a sense of closure to the longest-ever US war.
Instead, the arbitrary deadline has backed him into a corner.
Last week, Biden promised: “If there’s American citizens left, we’re going to stay until we get them all out” – but it is becoming increasingly evident that this will not happen by 31 August, the date set by the US President for the completion of the withdrawal.
This weekend, Jake Sullivan, Biden’s National Security Adviser, admitted that the administration still does not know how many Americans are left in Afghanistan, but that the number is believed to be around “several thousand”. There are also around 50,000 to 60,000 Afghans who need to be evacuated from the country.
The ongoing chaos at Kabul airport is also hampering evacuation efforts. The death toll of those attempting to flee the Taliban via Kabul airport has now risen to more than 20, with German officials reporting this morning that at least one Afghan soldier had died in a gunfight between US and German troops, with three other local fighters wounded.
Responding to pressure from his NATO allies, who do not have the manpower to continue their evacuation efforts without the US, Biden confirmed that he is having discussions about extending the deadline for the US withdrawal.
But the Taliban have made it clear that they are not willing to tolerate an extension, as they view any Western military forces in Afghanistan as an “occupation”.
Muhammad Suhail Shaheen, a spokesman for the Taliban, told the BBC: “Foreign forces should withdraw on the deadline they have announced earlier. Otherwise, it is a clear violation.”
He told Sky News that the evacuation effort continuing in Afghanistan past the end of the month would be a “red line” and would “provoke a reaction”, which the Taliban leadership would decide.
The 31 August deadline has locked the President into a bind. Should Biden stick to it, he risks leaving hundreds of innocent US citizens and allies to the mercy of the increasingly assertive Taliban. But if the US or its allies try to stay on after the deadline without an agreement with the Islamist group, it would bring an extreme risk of attack or violent disruption.
The predicament reveals how announcing arbitrary deadlines rather than achieving objectives plays into an enemy’s hands; because the date for US withdrawal is common knowledge, the Taliban have been able to strategise accordingly. See Robert Fox below for more.
The situation also shows just how much the equation has changed since the Taliban came to power just over a week ago. G7 members will meet virtually tomorrow to discuss whether to try to extend the 31 August deadline – but they will be under no illusion that they are in control of the situation.
Speaking ahead of the meeting, James Heappey, the UK minister for the armed forces, said: “Even though they are the seven most powerful people on the planet, they don’t get to take that decision in isolation.
“The Taliban get a vote as well, and that’s why we’re continuing to work towards the 31st. Even if the political will in London, Washington, Paris, Berlin is for an extension, the Taliban may say no.”
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