The world watches on as America heads to the polls
“Democracy is at risk and this is your moment to defend it,” Joe Biden told voters today as Americans head to the polls for midterm elections, and the Democrats face an uphill struggle to retain control of Congress.
The US midterms, which fall in the middle of a president’s four-year term of office, are a vote to determine who gets a seat in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. They’re also seen as a vital test of the current president’s popularity – and one which will set the tone for the next two years in office.
US Congress makes nationwide laws; the House decides which laws are voted on while the Senate has the ability to block or approve them. For the past two years, Biden’s Democratic Party has held a narrow majority in both chambers. Yet polling suggests the party is on course to lose its majority in the House, while the Senate is too close to call. In the Senate, four of the 35 seats being contested – Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania – hang on a knife-edge.
Mid-terms generally favour whichever party is not in power. They’re seen a protest vote – a chance to voice discontent. This year, Republicans will capitalise on anger over the state of the economy and immigration. That said, voter fury over the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn national abortion rights in June will work in the Democrats’ favour.
While it’s fairly common for the president’s party to lose control of one or both houses of Congress during the midterms, this doesn’t make it any less of a blow. A majority-Republican Congress is likely to try to block every major piece of legislation Biden proposes, grinding his agenda to a halt. This in turn has big implications for the 2024 presidential elections. If Biden is unable to deliver on his pledges because of the gridlock, voter frustration will build, reducing his chances of winning again.
So the results of the midterms could pave the way for a Donald Trump comeback. If the majority of Trump-backed candidates are elected, then the former president is more likely to get backing from the Republicans to run again in 2024. That said, if Ron DeSantis, the Republican governor for Florida, performs well, it will give the former-Trump-ally-turned-rival a boost to make his own bid for the White House.
The midterms are not just of national concern. A Republican takeover of Congress will have global ramifications. One world leader who will be particularly nervous about the implications for US foreign policy is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
A stronger presence in Congress of some of the more populist Republican candidates risks dampening US support for Kyiv.
In fact, Kevin McCarthy, the House Minority Leader and possible next speaker if the Republicans prevail, said last month that there would be no “blank check” for Ukraine if the House comes back under Republican control. Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Green has gone even further, insisting “not another cent” would be sent to Ukraine if her party controls the legislature.
A rowback in aid would have major implications given the scale of Washington’s current support. For context, the US has brought its total commitments in military, financial and humanitarian aid to Kyiv to over €52 bn, while EU countries and institutions have collectively reached just over €29bn.
What’s more, there would likely be a knock-on effect: European support for Ukraine could dwindle without pressure from Washington to keep up solidarity.
A lot is at stake, both domestically and on the global stage. But we may be left in suspense for some time. Given how close the races are expected to be, it could be days before we know the final results.
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