Thriller in Georgia: runoff elections could still give the Democrats control of the Senate

Amid the drama of Joe Biden slowly eking his way to victory, another set of races – of almost equal importance – have been counted rather more quietly. Running alongside this year’s presidential contest were 35 Senate elections. Control of this upper chamber in Congress will be vital in determining how effective the Biden presidency can be.

The Democrats went into this election feeling bullish about their chances to take the Senate. While they set their sights on a big landslide, they only technically need a 50-50 Senate split for a bare majority, since the Vice-President can vote in the Senate as the tiebreaker.  In theory, this meant picking up just three seats – though in practical terms they needed to win four races to compensate for the inevitable loss of Democrat Senator ,Doug Jones, in Alabama in this year’s elections. The Democrat incumbent’s previous opponent was facing multiple accusations of sexual assault including against minors, circumstances which allowed Jones to take the seat against what many perceived to be a disgraced Republican candidate.

The goal seemed eminently achievable. Polls seemed to suggest that the Senate’s natural lean towards the Republicans – a function of the overrepresentation of whiter, more rural states – would be overcome by a blue wave. Trump would flop, and drag down Republican Senate candidates with him

However, the presidential race turned out to be much tighter than almost anyone thought, and the Democrats substantially underperformed their expectations in the concurrent Senate battles. Indeed, a number of Democratic senate candidates thought to be running ahead of Biden’s performance in the national polls actually underperformed his percentage of the popular vote in their own constituencies.

In Maine, a deep-blue state, Republican incumbent Susan Collins is back in office. It seems that her – now almost unique – ability to convince large numbers of the opposing party to split their tickets in her favour remains undiminished.

In North Carolina, Democratic Senate candidate Cal Cunningham is well on his way to becoming a cautionary tale after his campaign was derailed by an affair. Though, given the polls, one might question if he ever really had a lead and other factors – like Trump’s little noticed strategy of courting local Lumbee Native Americans – likely played a role in his defeat.

Meanwhile, red states like Iowa, Montana, and Texas proved just a bridge too far in a year where hopes of a blue wave crashed headlong into a slightly smaller, and unexpected, red wave.

Democrats did see some victories, winning two seats – one in Arizona and one in Colorado, states that Biden also won. However, combined with the loss in Alabama – fairly inevitable given Democrat candidate Doug Jones was no longer gifted a discredited Republican opponent accused of sexual assault against minors – this only gives them 48 Senate seats.

Now, all eyes have turned to the few Senate races yet to be called – one in Alaska and two in Georgia. In Alaska the Democratic candidate, Al Gross, has yet to concede, pointing out that only 50% of the votes have been counted with lots of mail-in ballots to come. Still, with only 32.1% of the vote Gross’ chance of winning looks like the longest of long shots.

More realistically, the Democrats are pinning their hopes on two races in Georgia – one regular election and one special election being held concurrently. Vitally, under Georgia’s election laws, candidates in state races need to win 50% of the vote to be elected – a plurality simply doesn’t cut it. Instead, if no one gets 50% then the  two highest polling candidates in each race have to face each other in a “run-off”.

Currently, no candidate in either race has this vital 50%. For the special election, this was to be expected. Georgia special elections are open to all, with no party primaries to winnow candidates. This meant that there were twenty candidates were on the ballot this year. The two leading candidates to have emerged from this process are the Republican Kelly Loeffler and the Democrat Reverend Raphael Warnock.

For the main election, it was effectively a two-horse race between Democrat Jon Ossof and Republican David Perdue. However, as mail-in ballots trickled in, Perdue’s initial lead dipped below 50% – perhaps helped by Libertarian candidate, Shane Hazel, who garnered 2.3% of the vote.

This means that two run-off races will take place on 5 January. With the Senate in the balance, these races will attract immense attention and both parties will pour enormous resources into them. Who will win is, at this stage, anyone’s guess. Biden looks to have won this state, but only by a couple of thousand votes. He also fell short of the 50% that Senate candidates have to achieve.

What it will likely come down to is a simple question: which side is more capable of maintaining the sky high-levels of turnout that we saw in the November 3 elections? Will a Biden victory energise Democrat supporters or convince them they can relax? Or could fears that the Democrats will try and pack the Supreme Court undermine their chances?

Alternatively, with Trump due to leave the Oval Office on 20 January, will rich suburbs start coming home to the Republicans? Can Republicans maintain momentum without Trump’s relentless campaigning on their side? Will narratives of a “stolen election” energise Republican voters, or convince them their votes don’t matter? There are many issues still in play.

If the answers to these questions shake out positively for the Democrats, then they aren’t in a bad position. As mentioned, the 50-50 split, should the Democrats get a surge in Georgia’s runoff elections, would give them a functional majority. From this base, they could then buttress their power by admitting up to 3 new Democrat leaning states – Puerto Rico, Washington D.C., and the US Virgin Islands – and abolishing the filibuster.

If, however, they don’t reach this 50 seat mark, the Democrats are almost certainly facing a frustrating time. While it has been pointed out Biden potentially can do quite a lot simply by wielding executive power alone, his biggest ambitions for his legislative programme – including a vast green investment programme – are likely to be dead in the water or significantly curtailed.

There is even potential for complete deadlock akin to 2014-16, when the current Republican Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell, essentially blocked any meaningful action – even routine judicial appointments –made by President Barack Obama.

Alternatively, Biden – a Senate animal par excellence with a penchant for compromise – might unjam a few items by repeating past deals with McConnell or securing occasional Republican defections. But, these will inevitably come with a series of Republican provisions that many Democrats, including those in the House, will find very bitter to swallow.