Tim Montgomerie joins Reaction

Exciting news – Tim Montgomerie, leading Conservative commentator, is joining Reaction. Watch his first discussion with Iain Martin, Reaction editor, on our YouTube channel. They discuss Boris Johnson’s extraordinary popularity and ask if it will be derailed by an economic crisis. Don’t forget to hit the YouTube subscribe button for regular videos from the Reaction team and guests discussing news, politics, culture and much more.

Zero Covid

The UK has reported zero daily Covid deaths for the first time since July, in a boost to hopes that restrictions will end on 21 June.

Despite the news, concerns about a third wave mean it’s still uncertain whether or not the planned lockdown lifting will go ahead.

On Monday, the UK reported over 3,000 new Covid infections for a sixth day in a row, with the B.1.617.2 variant, first detected in India, now comprising around 75 per cent of cases circulating. 

Professor Ravi Gupta, a member government’s NERVTAG committee who is pushing to delay the date, warns that the UK could be in the foothills of a third wave. Although the number of new cases is still “relatively low” at the moment, the variant has fuelled “exponential growth”.

According to Gupta, the large number of vaccinated Brits could fuel “a false sense of security” because it means that this wave would take longer to emerge than previous ones. 

The government will announce the final decision on lockdown lifting on 14 June. 

It’s already clear that cases are gradually rising – even before the new variant woes, the relaxation of indoor socialising measures on 17 May was expected to have this effect. 

The real question for the next couple of weeks is whether or not rising infections result in a spike in hospital admissions.

In much of the UK, Covid-related admissions are still flat or falling despite an increase in cases. Yet in regions where the variant is most concentrated, a different pattern is emerging. In the North West of England, admissions have roughly doubled in the last month; in Scotland, they are doubling every fortnight, and in London there’s been a modest increase since the start of May. 

That being said, it’s important to note that in all three of those areas, the number of people in hospital with coronavirus is still less than 5 per cent of what it was at the end of January. And, as a general pattern, people are spending less time in hospital, with a smaller ratio of patients requiring critical care. 

Build it and they will come

As lockdown restrictions ease and demand soars, the UK manufacturing sector is growing at its fastest rate in almost 30 years. 

Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) hit 65.6 last month, topping the previous peak of 61 that was set in 1994 – with anything above 50 representing expansion.  

The news comes as the OECD revised its forecast for UK GDP growth to 7.2 per cent this year (up from 5.1 per cent in December) and 5.5 per cent in 2022, citing the success of the vaccine roll-out. 

The PMI reading is another encouraging sign that the economy is bouncing back from the pandemic. Many of our European neighbours – including France and Germany – are witnessing similar levels of demand for products.

Yet the steepest increase in production in three decades is raising concerns about supply chain bottlenecks. 

The survey showed that many suppliers are struggling to source enough raw materials to keep up with the increased demand, which is pushing up average delivery times to manufacturers. Shortages are particularly severe for electronics, plastics and metals. 

These shortages are creating strong inflationary pressure, with the cost of raw materials shooting up faster than any time since 1992. 

At least it put Kent on the map

Coronavirus strains have been given a re-brand. 

From now on, the WHO will name them after letters of the ancient Greek alphabet instead of where they were discovered, in a drive to end stigma. 

The Kent, South Africa, Brazil, and India variants have been given the letters Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Delta respectively, to reflect their order of detection.

The new naming system has come after months of deliberation – with scientists floating alternatives such as Greek Gods, and considering some naming systems with thousands of possibilities. 

Instead, they have opted for a system with just 24. Let’s just hope they don’t run out of letters. 

Caitlin Allen,
Reaction Reporter