Tory party membership hits 180,000

One of the most consistent complaints heard during the Tory leadership contest has been the charge that only a few thousand 94 year-olds will choose the next Prime Minister. The Tory party is overwhelmingly male, and it is said that when its members are not playing golf in the 1950s they are busy campaigning  against home rule for India in the 1930s.

But that caricature is unfair. And counterintuively, amid all the Tory-inspired political chaos, the Tory party is actually growing, it seems.

Membership is about to pass through the 180,000 mark, the Tory high command is about to announce. This week the party chairman Brandon Lewis trumpeted the figure at the party’s farewell to Theresa May summer party (don’t all rush at once).

Of that 180k number, about 165,000 qualify to vote in the leadership contest, having been members for more than three months.

Tory party membership collapsing has been one of the old dependable stories for decades. By now the Tory party was supposed to be extinct. Yet it’s still there – despite the efforts of some of its MPs over Brexit – and it seems to be expanding.

Is it all Brexiteers joining to deselect Remain-leaning Tory MPs? Seems not. There have been frequent claims made by friends of Nigel Farage that they spent a fortune infiltrating the party, encouraging Ukippers to sign up. The Tory high command dismisses that claim with a laugh, saying that when the Faragists boasted of a great email drive, the Tories could only detect 117 new Tory members having arrived via that route.

What’s driving the increase? The party points to an influx of younger members and women members, and the creation of as many as 100 new branches at universities and others affiliated to constituency associations. Although, as no definitive data is released such claims have to be treated with caution.

If there are more youth members, then the average age should, logically, be falling. The estimates from academic Tim Bale that the average age of members is 57 is acknowledged by CCHQ as accurate. If there’s an update, and the membership is trending a little younger, then the Tories should provide the figures. Goodness, they should provide the figures anyway and in this day and age be open. After all, the Tories finally have a centralised membership data base operating. They can now keep proper track of membership renewals, and they have reduced lapsed memberships by up to 70%.

Meanwhile, the Tory party faces electoral potential Armageddon, thanks to Theresa May allowing the European elections that gave birth to the Brexit party and the Lib Dem revival. Their new leader will have an extremely difficult task ahead, but they will – it seems – have the help of a considerably bigger party membership determined to stop Corbynite Labour.

Underneath the surface, there do seem to be signs of life in the Tory party.