Turkish military forces turn the tide in Tripoli and send Russian-backed strongman into retreat

In three or four swift moves, Turkish forces have turned the tide of fighting for Libya’s capital, Tripoli, in the past five days.

Turkish-backed forces, with thousands of mercenaries recruited from northern Syria, have seized a major air base from the forces of General Khalifa Haftar, who leads the so-called Libyan National Army from the eastern provincial capital of Benghazi.

For most of the last year the 76-year-old General Khalifa Haftar has encircled Tripoli and threatened to seize it from the coalition of the UN-backed Government of National Accord, led by Fayez-al-Sarraj. A month ago, his forces were accused of shelling and bombing two hospitals, one caring for Covid-19 patients.

General Haftar, who was trained in Muammar al-Gadaffi’s army before fleeing to the United States, has been pushing to dominate all of Libya since the dictator was ousted in 2011.

Currently he is backed by Egypt and the UAE, countries which have contributed their own air assets, principally Chinese-designed drones. In addition, he has been backed by Russia, which has supplied aircraft and about 1,200 mercenaries recruited and trained by the Wagner corporation. Russia is interested in Haftar’s bid to dominate Libya’s oil exports, given that the general controls most of the oil facilities in the east of the country.

At times Haftar seems to have enjoyed covert support from Emmanuel Macron and France – though in what terms has been far from clear. This has greatly annoyed Italy, which has worked to resurrect a round of peace talks under UN auspices. With the turn of events on the battlefield this week, talks are now back on the agenda, and being pushed hard by Britain, Germany, Turkey and Italy.

France now is lending support, as a new offensive seems to be opening round the coastal town of Sabrata.

The battle for the airbase of al-Watiya has implications well beyond Libya itself. The airbase was used by UAE unmanned aircraft to launch strikes at the capital, and to block the supply route by road to the border with Tunisia.

Haftar’s forces have pulled back from a number of key points which they were using to encircle Tripoli. They are struggling to regain momentum, largely because of their difficulty in maintaining a ground force of disparate mercenary groups. Local militias in the western coastal area of Tripolitania are run largely on tribal lines – and several key tribes are now positioning themselves as power brokers in any upcoming talks.

The way the pro-government forces conducted operations to seize the airbase marks a major departure in tactical militia warfare. The drones and jammers and other counter measures supplied by Turkey appear to have been decisive. Most of them were homemade by Turkey’s increasingly powerful defence industries.

For more than a year, the Turks have supplied their own Bayraktar-TB2 strike unmanned aircraft or drones. They have trained GNA Libyan pilots in Turkey – though some Libyans are reported to have refused to learn to operate the drones. They have been used to deadly effect, according to one report last year as single strike by Bayraktar killed half Haftar’s officer corps, who were meeting at a conference in a hangar at Al-Jufra air base.

The drones targeted similar weapons, this time of Chinese design and supplied by the UAE, on the ground at Watiya. In the course of this month’s fighting, the GNA forces have seized three state of the art Russian vehicle-mounted Pantasir air defence missile batteries.

But, according to Italian battle assessment, the real game changer appears to have been the use of the Aselsan Hasavar, a man-portable jamming system. This is part of the catalogue of new battlefield electronic weapons and jammers being developed by Turkey, and sold across the Middle East. According to the official Turkish Defence Industries catalogue: “The Hasavar Anti-Drone RF Jammer System, Drones/Mini -UAVs are used for purposes such as Reconnaissance (Spying and Eavesdropping on Facilities) Disturbance and Attack (with weapons and IEDs).”

Turkish backed forces are now reported to be moving in on another western coastal town, Sabrata, the site of one of the greatest late Roman villas in the Maghreb. Preparations for a ground operation are being covered by two Turkish Navy warships, the Goksu and Gokova. The aim is to link the coastal road to the Tunisian border.

As this new battleground has developed, eight Russian warplanes, six MiG 29 fighter bombers, and two Sukhoi SU-24 strike planes are reported to have been flown to Benghazi from the Hmeimim airbase controlled by Russia in Eastern Syria.

It is not clear if the planes are being flown by Syrian or Russian pilots. A spokesman for Haftar’s Libyan National Army said they were Libyan and had gone to Syria for repair. According to a top German military analyst, Wolfram Lascher, however, the MiG 29s are likely to be used to bomb the Watiya base and put its runways out of action.

The latest moves bring Turkey closer to its key Nato allies – Britain, Germany, Italy, France and the USA. This seems to repair the rift caused by Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defence system. The allies are now pushing for an immediate ceasefire and restarting the UN talks under the new UN Special Envoy, Stephanie Williams from the USA.

She has said the build-up of mercenary forces, drones and warplanes, designed, built or sold from Turkey, China, the US, Russia, the UAE and Qatar is “turning the Libyan conflict into a pure proxy war.”

For his part, the newly self-promoted Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar is now threatening “the largest aerial campaign in Libyan history.”

He and his Egyptian, UAE and Russian sponsors have denounced the alliance of “Muslim Brotherhood” elements in Turkey and the GNA coalition in Tripoli . It hints at strange bedfellows between Erdogan’s Turkey, Qatar – accused by the Saudis and UAE of sponsoring the Muslim Brotherhood, and the GNA in Tripoli.

Credible peace talks are likely to be launched soon because key parties are strapped for cash – UAE, Egypt, Syria, Russia and Turkey itself are all struggling with the financial strain during the global health crisis. There are prospects for a deal based on a three-part partition of Libya. The Russians are said to look on the same kind of solution for Syria with interest, too.

The battle for the Watiya may not have been the battle of Waterloo for the bombastic General Haftar. But it certainly appears to be what the military manuals call “a decision point.”