UK Covid cases fall for fifth day in a row

Britain is seeing a sustained fall in reported coronavirus cases outside of lockdown for the first time since the pandemic began.

According to the latest daily figures, the number of people testing positive for Covid has continued to fall for a fifth day in a row.

The UK recorded 29,173 new cases on Sunday – down from 48,161 logged a week earlier on 18 July – and the seven-day average of cases was down 15.4 per cent compared with the previous week.

The figures defy the estimates of Health Secretary Sajid Javid, who warned three weeks ago that cases could hit 100,000 a day, as well as modeler professor Neil Ferguson, who warned eight days ago that daily cases could reach 200,000 this summer.

It is the first time since the pandemic that a sustained drop has not coincided with a national lockdown. Most legal restrictions on social contact in England were lifted on 19 July, however, the latest figures do not include the impact of this “Freedom Day” easing of restrictions.

Scientists and politicians are divided over the reasons for the unexpected fall in cases, with some suggesting that the UK’s vaccine rollout has reduced transmissions and curtailed the rise of cases. 

The latest figures on vaccinations show 46,563,452 people have now had a first dose, while 37,160,659 have received a second dose.

Another theory is that the end of the Euros has seen fewer people meeting up in pubs or at home. The gender split between infections in men and women during the football championship, as well as the fact that Scotland saw cases fall sooner than England – in line with the timing of their exit from the Euros – both support this theory.

Professor Mark Woolhouse of Edinburgh University told the BBC: “There has been a lot of conversation about a football-related bounce in infections and whether we were seeing a wave-within-a-wave.”

“In Scotland though it’s now starting to look like it’s a longer-term trend. We haven’t seen any sign of cases picking up.”

Last week’s heatwave has also been suggested as a potential reason for the drop in cases – with more people meeting outside where it is harder to transmit the virus.

Despite the positive figures on cases, health officials have warned against complacency.  Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said that while the present data was “looking good for at least the summer… [The] figures do not, of course, include any impact of last Monday’s end of restrictions.

He said: “It will not be until about next Friday before the data includes the impact of this change.”

Ministers are also concerned that uptake of the vaccine is slowing among younger age groups, with a third of 18 to 29-year-olds not receiving a first dose.