UK growth at 0.5%. Despite Brexit…

“Despite Brexit” was one of the key phrases used this summer in what I term Brexit Bingo. Other key phrases in that national sport include “bumps in the road”, the use of the word trigger as a verb, “we will make a success of Brexit” and “Brexit means breakfast”. But “despite Brexit” was everywhere for a while in news reports and on social media. On its own it is tantamount to a full house or bonus points in Brexit Bingo.

“The sun has continued to come up every morning, despite Brexit…”

“The UK is enjoying a tourist boom, despite Brexit…”

“People are still going to the shops, despite Brexit…”

Now, the Leavers have a moment of vindication with the publication of the latest growth figures. UK GDP grew by 0.5% in the third quarter, against the -0.1% forecast by the Treasury when it was issuing warnings before the referendum.

Remain economists will say this is down to the post-referendum rate cut and QE announcement by Mark Carney and the Bank of England, which were designed to maintain confidence. They cannot have it both ways. One of my favourite Remain economists explained to me recently that the measures had actually made little difference. They cannot make little difference and then be hailed as adding half a percent to GDP. It seems more likely – does it not – that the warnings were overblown. Services led the way post-referendum and tourism is booming.

But I would caution my delighted fellow Leavers to go easy on the champagne. Inflation is coming (a little of it would be good) but history suggests that once you start overshooting on inflation these things can get out of hand quite quickly. On investment next year, a lot rests on the government getting its act together in terms of the City and business and trade. The Prime Minister, it becomes increasingly apparent, really – I mean really – doesn’t like big business, which is a “bold” approach at a moment such as this when the country needs all the growth and jobs it can get.

Even without Brexit, it is nine years since the beginning of the last recession. History suggests we, or key parts of the global economy, are due a recession at some point and perhaps even a so-called “black swan” (from China, or the ailing eurozone, or perhaps from Russia in the Baltic).

There will be bumps on the road…