Ukraine is about to ramp up its counter-offensive

It looks as if the ‘Big Push’ is finally on. Ukraine’s long-awaited counter-offensive got underway two months ago but has been mostly artillery barrages alongside infantry advances by relatively small units. The bulk of the heavy armour provided by Western countries was held back. This week that changed.

Dozens of mechanised vehicles including German made-Leopard tanks and American-made Bradley Fighting Vehicles accompanied by thousands of troops advanced in three directions –the city of Bakhmut, and the regions of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. In Bakhmut, Ukrainian troops have positioned themselves to attempt to encircle the city but the main thrust appears to be in Zaporizhzhia where the mechanised offensive appears to have broken through some of the Russian front lines.

Speculation that the Ukrainian counter advance had failed was premature and mostly did not consider that the heavy armour, and troops trained in complex combined forces manoeuvre warfare, had yet to be committed. It might yet fail, but only now is it really being tested.

It’s heavy going but, whereas previously an advance of 100 metres was considered a success, in some places Russian troops have been pushed back by a kilometre. Now, with some of the minefields and defences cleared, the Ukrainians hope to build momentum.

The fiercest fighting appears to be just south of the Ukrainian held town of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. South of Orikhiv is the occupied town of Tokmak which is the hub for five major roads. One of those leads down to the city of Melitopol which lies near the coast of the Sea of Azov. As previously discussed in this column, retaking Melitopol would cut the Russian occupying forces in two and sever the land bridge to Crimea.

If that is the plan, it will take weeks of hard fighting. A major breakthrough south of Orikhiv could quickly take the Ukrainians the 40 kilometres down to Tokmak but they would then encounter three lines of defences each with minefields in front of them. All have artillery positions, infantry trenches, anti-tank ‘dragons’ teeth’ and anti-tank ditches. Even overcoming that would still leave a similar battle to get into Melitopol although it could put the Ukrainian artillery within range of the Crimean Peninsula.

The advances so far come against the backdrop of minor Russian gains elsewhere, but it’s now clear President Putin cannot win his disastrous and ill-conceived war of choice. He can lose it, settle into a year-on-year stalemate, or come to the table and find a way to justify his actions to the Russian people.

The stalemate option was given a boost this week after the Duma passed an amendment raising the upper age limit for military call up from 27 to 30. An official statement read: “Starting January 1^st 2024, citizens aged 18 to 30 will be called up for military service. The bill has been adopted today in the third reading”. It will now go to the Federation Council for consideration before being signed into law by Putin. Given his grip on the levers of state, the Council’s consideration will be whatever he tells them it is.

Another sign that Putin is ensuring he has some cards to play came on Monday. Last week Russia pulled out of the deal which ensured Ukraine’s grain exports could reach the world’s markets and bombed three ports on the Black Sea destroying 60,000 tonnes of grain. This week, it sent 15 Iranian-made drones to attack Ukraine’s grain warehouses in the town of Reni which sits on the Danube River just a few hundred yards across from NATO member Romania. The Danube has become a key export route for getting Ukrainian grain out to the world albeit at a much-reduced rate. Several warehouses were destroyed and seven people injured in the attack.

It was the act of a desperate man but one who knows that causing food shortages around the world might cause pressure on Ukraine to sue for peace. There’s a chance it causes the opposite – even more resolve to support Ukraine – but that cannot be taken for granted and there are quiet rumblings in some capitals about how long financial and military support can keep flowing. The doubters are looking for a military breakthrough.

Ukraine’s President Zelensky described this week’s modest gains on the battlefield as  “very good results…. details will follow.”  There’s a lot riding on those details.

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