Ukraine peace deal: the faint lines of compromise are visible

Who is the best placed interlocutor between Presidents Putin and Zelensky – Bennett? Scholz? Erdogan? Answer – all of them. They are all working in public, and behind the scenes, to mediate the peace deal to end this madness. Also in the frame are Biden and Xi. The faint lines of the compromises necessary can be seen. It’ll take a lot of work to fill them in.

While that happens, the killing will continue. There is now a flood of weapons into Ukraine -British NLAW anti-tank missiles, American Javelins, German Panzerfaust 3 rockets, etc. The Ukrainian forces are still bleeding the Russians, hoping they will not break through, whilst waiting for the NATO cavalry which will probably not arrive. The Russians are using their old tactic of throwing young men into the meat grinder and expecting the sheer weight of their forces to eventually crush resistance. Only when one side believes it cannot prevail will the word be given that a deal can be done. There is still the realistic scenario of a long term fight morphing into an insurgency against the occupier. To prevent this coming to pass compromise is sought by outsiders.

Assuming there is no outright victory the terms of the deal will be dependent on the military position. If the Russians are winning, Putin will insist on recognition of Crimea as part of Russia, and recognition of the Donbas as independent. Ukraine, he will demand, must agree it will be a neutral country. If Ukraine is losing but still resisting, to end the bloodshed Zelensky could agree to all that, or variations of it. If the Russians are in disarray, he can push back. The easiest demand to accept would be Crimea, although that would still be a bitter pill. A counteroffer on the Donbas could be to accept that it could have semi-autonomous status.

Naftali Bennett has the ear of both leaders although Kyiv is suspicious that the Israeli Prime Minister leans towards Moscow because of the situation in Syria. Israel and Russia have a “deconfliction mechanism” in place, whereby the Israeli military gives warning to Russian forces in Syria before striking Iranian troops or missile shipments operating there. In return Moscow turns a blind eye to the hundreds of such air strikes which have taken place since the agreement came into force in 2015.

Bennett is a practicing Orthodox Jew but flew to see Putin on the sabbath after seeking a rabbinical exemption to travel on the grounds that lives were at stake. He spent three hours with Putin, before going on to see German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and then having several phone conversations with Zelensky. Israel will not help to arm Ukraine, but it did vote to condemn Russia at the UN last week. It has sent well over 100 tons of aid, dozens of medics, and has taken in 3,000 Ukrainian refugees.

Chancellor Scholz also has an open line to both leaders. At the end of the Cold War, Berlin built strong economic ties with Moscow and became ever more dependent on Russian energy. His decision, in response to the invasion, to break with 75 years of German foreign policy and properly fund the Bundeswehr probably shocked the Kremlin more than Berlin agreeing to suspend the license for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and supporting kicking some Russian banks out of the Swift messaging system. The support for Ukraine, remaining trade links with Russia, and German economic power, gives Scholz leverage.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also on the scene. His offer to host the Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers for talks in Antalya on Thursday was accepted with alacrity by both sides which shows us they want to keep channels open even if the press conferences after the meetings laid bare how far apart they are. Erdogan and Putin have courted each other over the past decade. They may only pretend to get on, but there is an established relationship and if Erdogan calls, Putin picks up. Almost 20% of Turkish tourism comes from Russia, as does 70% of its wheat imports. Erdogan needs tourists, Putin needs to sell wheat. Erdogan also has a good relationship with Zelensky especially after selling him the Turkish-made Bayraktar drones last year which have caused carnage in the Russian armoured columns. Turkey has a maritime border with both states and will look on with alarm if the Black Sea port of Odessa falls to Russia.

Presidents Biden and Xi are also players. Part of Putin’s demands, possibly in private, will be for the Americans to ease some of the sanctions currently battering the Russian economy. The Americans could offer to reduce military shipments to Ukraine. On Wednesday Xi held a virtual meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron and Chancellor Scholz after which said the three countries should jointly support peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. He called for “maximum restraint’ in Ukraine and said the priority should be preventing the situation from escalating or “spinning out of control”.

The Chinese leader is in a difficult position. Just last month he and Putin declared that their countries’ friendship had “no limits”. There would be “no wavering” in the partnership. But Putin’s invasion has tested those limits and caused a slight wavering.

China has a good relationship with Ukraine. It was among the first countries to establish ties with Kyiv when it escaped the Soviet Union and has built solid trading links based on buying Ukrainian arms technology and sunflower and rapeseed oil. In January Xi sent a message to President Zelensky saying he attached “high importance to developing the Chinese-Ukrainian strategic partnership”.

Putin’s criminal invasion has done nothing to advance that partnership and China has always opposed unilateral interventions in sovereign states in order to justify telling everyone not to poke their noses into Chinese domestic affairs. Realising the reputational damage being done to the Chinese/Russian relationship, Beijing is quietly positioning itself to mediate if called upon. On Monday the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said his country was ready to “play a constructive role”.

The day after Putin’s tanks rolled into Ukraine President Biden said: “In the contest between democracy and autocracy, between sovereignty and subjugation, make no mistake — freedom will prevail.” That’s a tall order in the world of realpolitik.