Ukraine tensions play out at Blenheim Palace
Britain’s new Prime Minister played international host for the first time today, as he welcomed over 40 European leaders to Blenheim Palace in Oxfordshire and pledged to “fire the starting gun” on a closer relationship with Europe.
The leaders gathered at the Baroque-style birthplace of Winston Churchill for the fourth meeting of the European Political Community, an initiative established two years ago in the wake of Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
All European countries – barring Russia and Belarus – were invited to the summit and, unsurprisingly, war in Ukraine has dominated the agenda today.
Despite Starmer’s assertion that it’s time to “reset” relations with Europe, perhaps his most important message of the day was actually one of continuity: Britain’s steadfast support for Ukraine will not waver under his watch.
Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, in attendance, thanked European countries today for their ongoing support and insisted that Putin “has failed to create division in Europe.”
Yet his attempt to present Europe as a united front against Russian aggression hides a rather more complex picture.
German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, may well have had some frosty encounters today after a draft finance budget revealed yesterday that Berlin plans to slash its military aid for Ukraine in half next year in the – arguably optimistic – hope that the shortfall will be made up for by the income Kyiv will receive from frozen Russian assets.
The attendee carrying the biggest black mark against his name is Hungary’s divisive leader, Viktor Orban. Speaking to reporters en route to Blenheim, he repeated his stance that the solution to war in Ukraine would be found at the negotiating table, not the battlefield.
Orban – who took over the EU’s rotating six-month presidency at the start of this month – drew wrath from other European leaders earlier this week after he launched a self-styled “peace mission”, embarking on a trip to Kyiv, followed by surprise visits to Moscow and Beijing, and talks in Florida with his ally Donald Trump.
The mission culminated in Orban – long a critic of Europe’s military support for Kyiv – composing a letter to the rest of the bloc, reassuring them that, if Trump is elected in November, he would be “ready to act as a peace broker immediately” and “has detailed and well-founded plans for this”.
Far from reassuring them, this has only stoked fears that the 2024 presidential hopeful would cut aid to Ukraine and push Zelensky into signing a peace deal that hands over a hefty chunk of Ukraine to Moscow, emboldening Putin to press ahead with further military adventures.
At Blenheim Palace today, Trump is the elephant in the room. And his pick of vice president this week will hardly have calmed Kyiv’s nerves. Far from being a moderating voice, J. D. Vance is the man who declared in February 2022: “I gotta be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another.”
As Josh Schlicht writes in Reaction, Vance is one of many “Asia First” Republicans who wants to limit US attention on Europe and focus instead on countering what he describes as “the real enemy”: China. In Congress, he is considered one of the most vociferous opponents of continued US aid to Kyiv.
At the fourth gathering of the EPC, the chilling prospect of Europe soon being left to fund and arm Ukraine alone will feel more real than ever.
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