Ukraine's future on the line as Zelensky and Putin vie for Trump’s goodwill
Vladimir Putin knows his audience. In his message of congratulation, the Russian leader appealed to Trump’s ego by hailing him as “courageous”, for his defiant reaction to July’s assassination attempt. He also offered an informal congratulations to the President-elect for his victorious campaign and opened the door to “discussions” in the future.
Puffery aside, Putin declined to make a formal congratulatory call and had his spokesperson issue a statement that the US “is an unfriendly country that is both directly and indirectly involved in the war against our state”.
Despite their relatively amicable relationship in Trump’s first term, Putin appears to be posturing somewhere between hostility and macho-flattery.
Meanwhile, Zelensky seized the opportunity to curry favour with Trump, extending one of the first congratulatory calls to 47. In his message, Zelensky lauded Trump’s “impressive victory” and expressed his appreciation for the President-elect's commitment to the “peace through strength approach”.
Zelensky also emphasised their discussion of his “victory plan”, a maximalist blueprint to reestablish Ukraine’s internationally-recognised borders. The Zelensky approach has little in common with the “peace” machinations presented by Trump and his VP J.D Vance thus far. Rather than supporting Ukraine until victory, the incoming administration has continually hinted at its ambition to end aid and facilitate Ukrainian concession.
Despite Trump’s past jabs at the Ukrainian President, now is no time to quarrel. Zelensky has to quickly forge inroads with Trump if he is going to prevent a hasty “day one” negotiation which compromises the crucial US weapons supply and Ukrainian sovereignty. As Tim Marshall points out, much of this will come down to who Trump selects for the top defence role - the decision between Ukraine-advocate Mike Pompeo or China-hawk Elbridge Colby could make all the difference.
The EU’s top brass have been gathered today at a summit in Budapest to discuss this potentially cataclysmic shift, along with the various other implications of a Trump return. Welcoming Zelensky to the community forum, Meloni, Macron, and the faltering Scholz all affirmed their support for the Ukrainian cause in the wake of Trump’s election and reiterated calls for European strategic autonomy.
Their distress over Trump’s triumph was not shared by the lone MAGA aficionado amongst the group, Viktor Orban. The Hungarian PM revelled in Trump’s victory, attesting that he had opened vodka bottles to celebrate “this fanastic result”. At the summit today, Orban confidently asserted that Trump will “quit the Ukraine war”, which will force Brussels to rethink its support as well.
Although the EU and the UK have massively increased their contributions to Ukraine, militarily and financially, many analysts and top officials believe that the loss of American support would end any prospect of Ukrainian victory. The solidarity rhetoric expressed by Europe’s leaders in Budapest right now could soon prove impotent if Trump does decide to abandon the fight.
Trump cabinet speculation aside, serious questions remain over Putin’s desire for negotiation. As it stands, Russia has the upper hand on the battlefield, inching forward in Ukraine’s east every day. In addition, their economy has prevailed over western sanctions and Moscow’s wartime supply chains have proven resilient.
While Trump may boast of ending the conflict on day one, it’s uncertain that Putin will even want to race to the war’s cessation. Trump may be the man of the hour, but Putin has time on his side.
Josh Schlicht
Reaction Reporter
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