US election cliffhanger – Biden and Trump prepare to take it to the courts

Defying the polls once again, the 2020 race turned into a nail-biter of a contest last night with Donald Trump taking key swing states and upsetting the odds. He and Democrat challenger Joe Biden appear to be headed for a contested election that will have to be resolved in battles in court.

Trump has definitely taken Florida and Ohio, and, almost certainly, North Carolina. But Biden’s apparent victory in Arizona means that he’s still in contention – perhaps still a narrow favourite. Georgia looked to be heavily slanting towards Trump, but analysts are expecting a rally for Biden as the final votes get counted and a victory here would suddenly make Biden a clear favourite. Still, how big the rally we might expect is unclear.

In the end, if Trump keeps Georgia, it looks like it will all come down to the three Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania as in 2016. If Biden wins those states he can breathe easy. However, the Democrats will not be taking them for granted now.

In an extraordinary night, Trump also seems to have built up some big early leads in those three key states, adding even further on the leads he had in more rural and blue-collar areas. We should expect Democrats to eat into these as absentee ballots start to get processed after the in-person ballots cast in these states have been counted. Philadelphia, which will go heavily Democratic, in particular, will have an impact.

Whether this will be enough remains to be seen.

Nevertheless, the Biden campaign is still projecting confidence in these states. When Biden came out to give a statement to his supporters a little after midnight EST, he declared: “We believe we’re on track to win this election.” Still, he admitted they had not expected the election to take this long saying people would have to be “patient” and “It ain’t over until every vote, every ballot, is counted”.

With these statements, Biden seems to be prepping the ground for potential legal wrangling over the election. A close election, hinging on absentee ballots counted after election night, opens up the possibility of legal challenges.

Indeed, Trump has already angrily tweeted: “We are up BIG, but they are trying to STEAL the Election. We will never let them do it. Votes cannot be cast after the Polls are closed!”

He reiterated that in a White press conference – claiming victory and saying that a “fraud” was being perpetrated.

Back on the the counting, if as seems likely, Georgia goes for Trump, we are also edging closer to an exotic scenario where individual districts in Nebraska and Maine, which unlike other states don’t operate on a winner takes all basis, make the decisive difference to the outcome.

Already Biden has apparently taken Nebraska’s second district, NE-2. If Biden then adds to this takes Michigan and Wisconsin but not Pennsylvania he would sit at 267 Electoral College votes, within touching distance of the 270 to win. He’s then well positioned to win by either picking up 3 or 4 of Maine’s electors, and he seems very likely to manage at least the former.

If Trump takes any two of the three crucial Midwestern states then he’s cemented his victory – and pulled off another incredible upset.