US election polls: Trump needs to act fast to prevent a crushing Biden landslide

In US elections pundits often talk of an “October surprise”, an unexpected event that suddenly alters the political calculus. The 2016 election saw a positive blizzard of the leaking of the “Access Hollywood” tapes that included Trump’s infamous “Grab them by the pussy” remarks, Wikileaks releasing emails that made Hillary Clinton seem duplicitous, and the FBI reopening its investigation into Clinton’s emails just days before the election. Some, including renowned pollster Nate Silver, believe the last surprise played a key role in tipping the election Trump’s way.

This year we’ve already had Trump, and many other senior Republicans, falling ill with coronavirus. And, while more twists and turns can’t be ruled out, the current flurry of surprises seem to be favouring Biden. The FiveThirtyEight polling average gives Biden a lead of 9.8% points as of October 8. By all conventional metrics Donald Trump looks destined for a shattering loss in this year’s election. Despite this, the question on everyone’s lips is: can Trump beat the odds once again?

Well, everything is possible, but if he does it will be an even bigger upset than in 2016. While Clinton was the clear favourite that year her polling lead was quite variable and the occasional polls did show narrow Trump leads. Biden’s lead, however, has been remarkably steady – unmoved by almost any surprise no matter which month it might be.

As Jeremy Shapiro, former assistant secretary of state in Obama administration, observed: “There has been astonishing stability in this race – despite a global pandemic, race riots, the resurgence of white supremacists, the worst depression since the 1930s, and the president has contracted a deadly disease. Short of nuclear war it’s hard to think of what could be bigger than what’s already happened. This election is about Trump. It barely matters who his opponent is as by this point most people have already made up their mind about him – for and against.”

While Biden is, curiously, somewhat weaker than Clinton among non-white voters – winning among ethnic minorities by a margin of 39% points as opposed to Clinton’s 50% – he seems to have more than made up for this in other areas. Large numbers of non-college educated whites who flipped to Trump four years ago seem to being pulled back into Democrat the fold.

Vitally for Biden, he is also the first Democrat presidential candidate in twenty years who looks set to win a majority amongst the over-65s in America, a group that makes up about 25% of the electorate can be relied upon to turn out in high numbers. Four years ago, Trump won this group by 8% points – this year polls show him behind Biden by 5% points.

Here, Trump’s flailing response to the pandemic and the simple fact that polls show people like Biden on a personal level, unlike Clinton, seems to have played a big role. The BLM protests in June also provided a boost, with the majority of the public disapproving strongly of Trump’s hardline approach. Now we may be approaching another inflection point with Biden’s lead seeming to jump again following Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis. Biden’s current lead of 9.8% in the polling average represents a sharp rise as compared with 8.2% October 1.

Understandably, many mutter, the polls called it wrong in 2016 – so surely this could happen again. Yes, the polls might once again be off by a narrow, but vital margin. And, yes, America’s bizarre electoral college system currently slants Republican which might allow Trump to once again squeak a victory with wins in a few key states.

But even if state polls are underestimating Trump by as much now as they did in 2016 this would still deliver a resounding Biden victory. It is also worth bearing in mind when discussing polls’ margin of error that the margin can go either way – making a Biden landslide of truly crushing proportions (think the Democrats winning Georgia and Tennessee) about as likely as a narrow Trump win.

The Trump campaign generally looks to be in trouble as well. Brad Parscale, Trump’s former campaign manager, stepped down completely last week not long after being wrestled to the ground by a SWAT team on live TV after a one-hour standoff after his wife had called them saying he was threatening to kill himself with a gun.

Meanwhile, his campaign has begun to cancel $7 million of adverts in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota – three key mid-Western states which secured Trump’s election win with razor thin majorities. Some are speculating his campaign – despite having had years to build up reserves – is starting to run out of money. Meanwhile, Biden’s campaign has raked in record sums.

At this point, many Democrats seem almost to be more worried about what happens after the election than the election itself. Trump has repeatedly claimed that mass fraud may occur via mail-in-ballots, which are being used by millions due to the pandemic. He seems to be building up the narrative for election night that postal ballot fraud could be responsible for robbing him of victory. He has also refused to commit to a peaceful transition of power.

Indeed, at this point Shapiro’s main concern is margins of victory. “If there’s a big enough margin Trump can’t try and steal the election. If its 4-5% it enters the realm of the possible.” The “blue shift” in which large numbers Democratic votes are often only counted after election day, something likely amplified by mass use of mail in ballots, concerns him greatly. The split of a Democratic governor and Republican legislature in Pennsylvania, widely seen as the tipping point state in the election, also concerns him.

Still, while things might look dire for Trump, most politicians and pundits across the spectrum don’t share Jeremy Shapiro’s boldness when it comes to making predictions – once bitten, twice shy, they are still scarred by his narrow upset win in 2016. Trump and the campaign that he embodies may be ailing yet he is still staggering along. The question is this – will they yet rally and turn this election around, or will they be buried due to their own denial of reality as to the forces beyond their control?