US-Iran Crisis: Tehran strikes American airbase in Iraq
Iran has launched what it called “hard revenge” against the United States for the assassination of the head of their Quds special forces, Commander General Qasem Soleimani, on 4th January.
A total of 22 surface-to-surface missiles were launched by Iran at American military bases in Irbil and Ain al Asad, which lie to the north and to the west of the city of Baghdad respectively. No casualties have been reported so far, although assessments of the damage are still ongoing.
The missiles were launched from Iranian soil, and the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) immediately claimed responsibility for the attack on Iranian state media. The IGRC-affiliated FarsNews Agency released images of the ballistic missiles at 10:54 pm UK Time while the attacks on the US bases were still ongoing, labelling the action as “hard revenge”. FarsNews then released a video showing the “Army’s heavy missile attacks on US base in Ain al Asad” at 11:36 pm UK time.
The IRGC released a statement to the IRNA news agency which declared that “the brave soldiers of the IRGC’s areopsace unit have launched a successful attack with tens of ballistic missiles on Al Asad military base in the name of martyr General Qasem Soleimani”.
American and Iraqi officials have reported no casualties so far amongst their personnel on the ground. However, there are conflicting reports – and it is possible that US and Iraqi soldiers have been killed or wounded. We will only know the full picture later on today. The Danish government and British Ministry of Defence have also released statements saying that their forces based in the region were not harmed by the attack.
Not all of the missiles fired by the IRGC found their target. Two of the missiles are reported to have failed to go off, while one video online appears to show Iraqi soldiers celebrating the success of a US counter-missile strike.
President Trump has been briefed by the Pentagon and tweeted at 2:45 am UK time and played down the possibility of heavy damages and casualties:
“All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good! We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement tomorrow morning.”
The Iranian Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif, took to the US President’s favourite forum for diplomacy, Twitter, and defended Iran’s actions as a “proportionate” response to the US strike on Soleimani:
“Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of UN Charter targeting base from which cowardly armed attack against our citizens & senior officials were launched. We do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression.”
The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been addressing the Iranian people on state TV in Tehran this morning. The Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani, has also announced that he will make a speech to the nation in the aftermath of the attack. Iranian state TV has said that this will take place on Wednesday morning.
Some commentators will point out that this hardly qualifies as retaliation, let alone “hard revenge”. The US President has taken out Iran’s most important military commander in the Middle East, and Iran’s response represents a climb down from the “severe revenge” that was promised by Ayatollah Khamenei. It has also been suggested that the small scale of the attack means that Iran is seeking to save face while de-escalating a confrontation it does not want, and cannot win. There is more symbolism than substance in the strike, they argue.
Israel-based defence expert, Yaakov Lappin, told Sky News this morning: “This is an Iranian attempt to end the direct clash phase of this confrontation based upon the Iranian recognition that the US brings superior fire power to this fight.”
This comes after yesterday’s developments, when the US Secretary of Defence, said: “We are not looking to start a war with Iran, but are prepared to finish one.”
The UK’s Foreign Secretary, Dominic Raab, is reportedly heading to Washington to find a way to “de-escalate” the tensions and find a diplomatic way out of the crisis. Raab has released a statement this morning outlining his approach to the situation, and suggesting there may be casualties:
“We condemn this attack on Iraqi military bases hosting coalition – including British – forces. We are concerned by reports of casualties and use of ballistic missiles. We urge Iran not to repeat these reckless and dangerous attacks, and instead to pursue urgent de-escalation. A war in the Middle East would only benefit Daesh and other terrorist groups.”
Whatever the Foreign Secretary’s intentions, the UK has now been branded by the regime in Tehran as an accomplice in the US’s aggression. The Defence Secretary Ben Wallace announced in Parliament on Tuesday that British forces in the Gulf region and the Middle East are now placed upon standby for operations, and can be deployed to locations near Iraq “within 48 hours” if necessary. The Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, will be answering questions today in the House of Commons.
We now await the US President’s statement, which can be expected in the early afternoon in UK time. The next stages of the crisis, and how the US responds, will depend upon the temperament of President Trump.