US patience with the Houthis is running out

Yemen’s Houthis have been put on notice. The Americans and their allies issued a statement this week promising that the Houthis “will bear the responsibility of the consequences” if attacks on ships in the Red Sea continue.

The statement, signed by 12 countries, came the day after two anti-ship ballistic missiles were fired from a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen towards vessels in the Red Sea. A US Navy destroyer shot them both down and an American helicopter then sank three Houthi speedboats killing 10 Houthi fighters onboard them. “Let our message now be clear,” read the statement, “We call for the immediate end of these illegal attacks and release of unlawfully detained vessels and crews”. It’s clear enough. Another attack and the US must up the stakes or lose face and its reputation as guardian of freedom of navigation in the open sea.

The Iranians, who back the Houthis, praised the missile attacks, and deployed a frigate into the Red Sea. Tehran views the Houthis as part of the “Unity of Arenas” campaign it has developed in the Middle East in its attempt to dominate the region and combat Israel, Saudi Arabia and the US. This is what links the Houthis with Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) which operates in Syria.

Iran is a majority Shia country facing a majority Sunni Arab Middle East. To gain leverage, it seeks to influence the Arab Shia minorities. Its greatest success is with Hezbollah in Lebanon but over the past decade it has increased its support for the Shia Houthis in Yemen. Its marriage of convenience with Hamas (a Sunni movement) was an unexpected development but one which suits both for now. The policy of unifying the arenas has successfully created sophisticated armed groups within range of Israel to its west, north, northeast, and southeast.

This allows Iran to wage a proxy war against Israel and the US although Tehran usually denies direct involvement in the actions of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. The extent of Iranian approval of the Houthis actions in the Red Sea is unclear. Whatever the case, both now have a choice to make: raise the stakes, or fold.

If there is another serious attack on a ship – it’s highly likely the US and others will not just sink a speed boat but hit the bases inside Yemen from where the Houthis fire their missiles. Anything less will be seen as weakness by America’s enemies.

The Red Sea connects the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea via the 120-mile-long Suez Canal. About 15% of global seaborne trade passes through the Red Sea including 12% of the world’s traded oil and 8% of its liquefied natural gas. Some ships are now going all the way around the tip of southern Africa to avoid the route which adds two weeks to the journey and raises fuel and crew costs. An added complication is that drought has reduced traffic through the Panama Canal and some ships taking American grain to Asian markets were rerouting through the Suez Canal.

The Houthis actions are contributing to higher energy costs, disrupted supply chains, and possibly to inflation. That, combined with a clear warning from the US, makes it almost inevitable that if more ships are attacked then American cruise missiles will fly.

Patience has run out with the Unity of Arenas. The Israelis made that clear on 25 Dec when an airstrike killed senior IRGC commander Seyed Raza Mousavi in Syria. They followed that up this week with the assassination of the Hamas Deputy Leader, Saleh al-Aruori in Beirut.

Al-Aruori was the deputy leader to Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh and the man who told Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, about the Oct 7 massacre in Israel. He was killed in a drone strike on an apartment in the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahiya. The Israelis (who have not admitted the killing) sent a message. Not only did they signal they were going to go after the Hamas leadership, wherever they are, but suggested to Hezbollah to keep calm. The attack was a real slap in the face for Hezbollah, but several senior members had been in the room with al-Arouri. Only when they had left was the drone’s missile fired.

Nasrallah appears to have got the message. Last August, he said, “Any assassination on Lebanese soil against a Lebanese, Syrian, Iranian or Palestinian will be met with a decisive response.” Israel called his bluff. There will be some form of response, and Hezbollah will probably allow retaliation by the hundreds of Hamas fighters in Lebanon, but, in a speech the following night, he stopped well short of calling for an escalation and, amid the usual bombast, it was clear he wants his movement to stay out of the Israeli crosshairs for now.

The assassinations in Syria and Lebanon were also aimed at Iran, as was the implied threat from the Americans against the Houthis. The Iranian leadership is probing the resolve of Israel and the US. Ayatollah Khamenei may be betting that in a US election year the American president will not want to get too involved.

If so, he’s probably wrong. The economic and strategic necessity of responding if the Houthis go all in is too great. The next move belongs to the Houthis – and their enablers.

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