US voter turnout soars with extraordinary numbers of mail-in ballots cast across the country

The numbers are frankly astonishing. Yesterday, Hawaii became the first state to beat its total voter turnout numbers in 2016 based on early voting alone. Already, 457,294 ballots equivalent to 104% of the turnout four years ago had been cast – and the number will continue to rise today.

In this, Hawaii leads but it is not unique. Today early voting saw Texas also exceeded its total 2016 turnout of 8,969,226 with over 9 million ballots cast. Montana is nearly there with 471,519 votes cast at latest count, 97.2% of 2016’s total. In Georgia the numbers are over 3,621,485 –87%. In North Carolina 4,083,968 – 86.1%. In Florida 7,822,033 – 83%. In Wisconsin 1,738,638 – 58.4%. Nationally some 83 million people have already voted, around 60% of 2016’s total turnout.

So, what does this mean for the election?

First of all, it scrambles polling predictions – probably, but not certainly, in favour of Democrats. Polls inevitably predict based, partly, on expected turnout, but early voting numbers have had some pollsters suggesting we might see turnout levels not witnessed in over a century.

This is probably good news for the Democrats. Democrats seem to make up a solid majority of early voters. More generally, higher turnout tends to favour them. Obama won partly off the back of boosting turnout among young, black, and Latino voters and this year all these groups look to be turning up to the polls in large numbers.

The boost could be particularly pronounced in Texas, where Republican power has, partly, depended on low voter turnout and weak Democratic organisation. If Texas goes so does the Republican party’s national hopes in the presidential and senate battles across the country, though other potential swing states like Georgia and North Carolina could also be vital.

However, the Democrats should not count their chickens yet. Republicans also seem enthusiastic. The early voting gap between the parties has started to narrow in the key states of Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, and Iowa. Republicans will also likely turn out in larger numbers than Democrats on election day. Indeed, while dropping turnout among Democrats helped Trump in 2016, he was also aided by a surge of voting among groups favourable to him.

The divide between Democrats voting early, and often by mail, and Republicans in person also creates potential for chaos when it comes to counting results.

In the vital mid-Western states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan – which tipped the election to Trump in 2016 – we can expect what is known as a red mirage, or a blue shift. In-person votes will be counted first with results expected to lean Republican due to greater Democratic use of absentee ballots, and in-person Democratic votes piling up in big cities so taking longer to tally. Once this is done then absentee ballots, which are expected to be overwhelmingly for the Democrats will be counted, likely creating a scenario where Republicans initially appear to have a solid lead that then disappears.

Meanwhile, in the Southern states of Florida and North Carolina we might expect the opposite phenomenon. Here the first results available will be from absentee ballots and early in-person votes which are expected to skew heavily Democrat, with Republican votes coming in later.

There are reasons to be anxious about the impact “blue shift” effect could have after the polls close on 3 November. Back in 2018 Trump was already vocally suspicious of when blue shifts cost Republicans some vital congressional races. Now, Trump’s own neck is on the line this election and he has already spent months throwing doubt on the legitimacy of mail-in-ballots, something which has contributed the party-line disparity in early voting. He is also one never to admit defeat. If Trump starts to lose key swing-states after initially appearing to build up a massive leads, expect him accuse the Democrats of voter fraud and his supporters to take him seriously.

Usually, in the US the results can be called on the night of the election. The race between news networks to be the first to call it practically guarantees this. This year, however, it seems all too likely we will be facing a long, muddy, and potentially dangerous slog before we can state the results with any certainty.

Joseph Rachman is reporting from Washington D.C.