Virus takes a wrecking ball to US economy

Coronavirus has hit the US economy like a wrecking ball. There were 3.28 million new claims for unemployment benefits last week as quarantine closed businesses across the nation. The spike in new claims is the highest on record, more than quadrupling the previous peak of 695,000 in 1982. Even these numbers do not show the full picture excluding the self-employed and gig workers.

Economists are warning that these figures will  worsen and some are predicting that by the summer 14 million Americans will have lost their jobs. Speaking today Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, said the US “may well be in recession”, and the economy could only be reopened once the threat of coronavirus has subsided.

This cataclysmic economic news comes as the pandemic’s spread continues to accelerate in the US. The number of coronavirus cases identified in the US jumped by more than 10,000 in a single day yesterday. According to Johns Hopkins University, a total of 69,246 cases have now been identified in the US, and over 1,000 have died due to coronavirus.

Some US hospitals are already considering blanket do-not-resuscitate orders for coronavirus patients in a bid to conserve strained resources. Nearly half of all cases identified have been in the state of New York which has more than 30,000 patients.

In an ironic turn, fears about the spread of coronavirus in the USA have prompted protests in Mexico calling for better screening of Americans entering their country. Mexico itself, after some delay, is stepping up quickly its response. With 475 confirmed cases, schools were closed on March 20 and businesses were urged to allow employees to work from home. Today all non-essential government activities are to be halted.

In Brazil, however, President Jair Bolsonaro continues to refuse to take the crisis seriously. Comparing the disease to “a little flue or a little cold” he urged Brazilians to carry on as normal.

Bolsanaro’s refusal to take swift action parallels Iran. Iran has only just started to take serious measures to contain the virus, announcing an inter-city travel ban and commercial lockdown today. However, its slow response to the crisis means that, according to official figures, the virus has already claimed 2,234 lives. Experts suspect the true numbers could be far higher.

By contrast, Japan is stepping up its response. With a total of 1,399 confirmed cases and 47 deaths Japan’s relatively low figures despite the lack of lockdowns have provoked widespread debate. Some have sought to identify the secret of its success, while others have expressed scepticism suggesting these figures have been massaged by cases of coronavirus being reported as pneumonia.

Whatever the case, official alarm appears to be growing. Residents of Tokyo have been urged to stay home at the weekend, authorities saying if they do not the city risks an “explosion” of new infections.

Singapore, another country widely praised for its response, saw its biggest jump yesterday with 73 new cases identified largely from infection clusters found in two schools. The country’s total now stands at 683 confirmed cases, and 2 deaths.

Far worse hit is Spain where the death toll now stands at 4,145. While the number of new deaths appears to have slowed this will be cold comfort for a country which has recorded more deaths due to coronavirus than China, despite its lockdown.

Elsewhere, New Zealand started a one-month lockdown yesterday. This was adopted despite the fact that, so far, only 283 cases and no deaths have been recorded. Only essential workers are allowed to leave their homes.

Australia has taken a softer line but has slowly tightened restrictions, including a ban on international travel and tight restriction of entries. In the past week two cruise ships carrying passengers showing coronavirus symptoms have been turned away. A third with mainly Australian passengers is being allowed to land but will be subject to quarantine.

Another cruise ship has been stranded off the coast of South America after all ports in the region denied it harbour. The ship is now heading for Florida and will be restocked en route.

For its part, China reported no new cases in Wuhan today for the first time since the start of the crisis, though some have questioned this figure. However, there has been a rise in the number of imported cases, i.e. cases affecting travellers from overseas. As a result, China has announced it is drastically cutting flights in and out of the country and has temporarily banned foreigners from entry.

South Korea is also adopting a strict approach towards arrivals from overseas. All overseas travellers will have to download a phone app tracking potential symptoms and all foreigners entering the country will be forced to self-isolate for 14-days.

Russia is due to stop all overseas flights tomorrow. While the number of recorded cases in Russia remains low, the crisis has delayed a constitutional change that would have allowed Vladimir Putin to stay in power for two more consecutive terms. Some domestic restrictions are beginning to appear as well. In Moscow, pensioners and those with chronic illnesses have been urged to stay home.

As lockdowns proliferate the question of how to mitigate their impact and enforce them is becoming ever more pressing. Even as the $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus and relief bill works it way through the US Congress India has announced a $22.6bn fund to help its poorest citizens through its 21-day lockdown which started today.

Enforcement is also becoming a difficult issue. Across the world many people have defied orders to stay at home. In response some countries have levied fines on those breaking quarantines. In India, videos have emerged of the police forcing quarantine violators to do squats while chanting their apologies. Measures have been far harsher elsewhere.

The United Arab Emirates has detained 64 people for violating their 14-day quarantine. In the Philippines human rights group are sounding the alarm about police abusing those who they detain for breaking quarantine, in some cases locking them in dog cages. In Rwanda two men were shot dead today after defying the lockdown.