We need a leader equal to our perilous times – and it’s not Boris
Earth has little to show more fair. I was fortunate enough to spend the weekend with beloved old friends in their enchanting country house. They are both inspired gardeners and this was the weather to enhance the harvest of their creativity. It is a very English garden. Every square inch has been planned, in order to help nature to express itself: the trowel and the glory. Eating al fresco, serenaded by birdsong, were we in the last rites of spring or the first tremulous expression of summer? Whichever, and although one was almost tempted to trust the English weather, carpe diem.
On Easter morning, we were also serenaded by bells, and excitement. An Easter egg hunt was under way. It was explained to the littlies than Easter means more than chocolate but then again, children’s merriment helps to proclaim to the world that Christ is Risen. Joy in Dorset: very different emotions in Donbass. My friends are working to extract and succour refugees and the stories are heart-rending. In makeshift camps near the Polish-Ukraine border, old people are huddled in corners. Their lives have been turned upside down. Homes destroyed, children and grandchildren still in Ukraine and in danger: some of the old are summoning up reserves of strength bred in their bones by generations of hard lives in harsh conditions. Others are ready to give up. There are also the children. Two 12-year-old boys were apparently unable to speak or smile. They had seen a friend casually shot dead by a Russian soldier.
Children can be astonishingly resilient, as is borne out by many stories of German child refugees in the ethnic cleansings after 1945. But that is not true of all. If this war ended tomorrow, traumatised children’s nightmares would endure for decades. And the war is not going to end tomorrow. The stories that I have been hearing relate to refugees: those who have at least reached safety. But what about the population of Mariupol? “Hardly bears thinking about” has almost attained cliché status. In the case of Mariupol, it is merely an understatement.
There is a general conclusion to be drawn from all this. Mankind is not good at organising its affairs. Much of last century was a ghastly mess. It started in 1914. The First World War was the second fall of man. As we moved inexorably to a second war, it seemed that European civilisation might well be finished. After 1945, the future of mankind was in jeopardy. Thankfully, the Cold War stayed cold. For most of the time, we were edging away from the abyss, but insecurity persisted. Then we won.
Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive. Victory in the Cold War was the greatest triumph in all history, especially as it was almost bloodless. The wound in Europe’s side was healed. The nations we had to leave behind at Yalta were freed. Their great cities could rejoin the civilisation from which they had been sundered. Russia itself had the opportunity to make a decisive break with its primitive past. Much of Russian history had been a time of troubles in some form or other. Perhaps the troubles were now over. George Bush Senior spoke of a “new world order”. Back then, that did not seem like a fantasy. Now that the Cold War was over, the Russians would no longer be trying to stir up trouble in the Third World. We could use soft power to help the backward nations to progress. We in the West knew what worked. The rule of law, free markets and some form of democracy could offer most people the hope of living decently, free from oppression. Alas: dawn ended, daylight was brief, darkness followed.
In the early 90s, the West had a chance to create a new system of security and stability in Europe, which could have spread out to the wider world, even including China. We failed to take it. George Bush’s order has given way to Samuel Huntington’s Clash of Civilisations and the West is not winning. Although we did liberate Kuwait – one success – our interventions in Libya, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq have hardly promoted order. Iran is still a threat and the Palestinian question remains unsolved. At the moment, hardly anyone seems to want to think about it. There has been an outbreak of insolubility fatigue. This is dangerous. One day, the Palestinians will force themselves back to the forefront of the agenda, and not by peaceful means.
Algeria and Egypt have been stabilised by tough generals. Human rights are not high on their agenda. But the West averts its gaze while stigmatising Saudi Arabia, a country which is making progress. In the whole of history, few if any regions have undergone such a dramatic transformation in such a short period as the Arabian Peninsula in the last 80 years. We cannot expect them to replicate Western norms of constitutional liberalism overnight. Moreover, if the current ruler of Saudi were overthrown, the country might well fall to Islamic fundamentalism. The West should acknowledge its ally, especially as we need his oil.
That brings us to another area where vital matters have been mismanaged, especially in Britain. For a generation, it has been clear that there is only one way to guarantee energy security in this country: nuclear power. Yet successive governments have procrastinated. After all, the problem was not urgent – merely serious. But if necessity is the mother of invention, war is an especially galvanising form of necessity, particularly on energy. Now even Boris Johnson has understood the urgency. For the medium term, we need nuclear, which could help to meet the 2050 carbon target. In the short term, we need to keep the lights on, the costs down and the economy growing. That means oil and gas. This might cause the PM difficulties at home. Carrie Antoinette has never been accused of energy realism. But who is Prime Minister?
Who indeed? We are living in perilous times. Foreign affairs, energy, the economy: we are beset by doubt and danger. So we need leadership. Over the past few weeks, the Clown has been surprisingly good at playing Hamlet, but “play” is the word. As PM, Bojo is merely a Player King. It might seem absurd that a prime minister should be brought down by a glass of wine in the wrong place, but Boris has always been an absurd Prime Minister.