What Dominic Cummings is up to

When Dominic Cummings was cycling around London after the 2015 general election, preparing the establishment of Vote Leave, he came to listen to a think tank panel discussion about the possibility of Brexit. I was on the panel and the venue was in Tufton Street. Afterwards, we had a brief and friendly conversation about the planning for the referendum and the concern of Unionists that a vote to leave could boost the SNP in its campaign to break up the United Kingdom.

Do not mention this reminiscence to Carol Clarification of the Observer, the tenacious reporter who has investigated Brexit endlessly. In the view of ultra-Remainers, Tufton Street is the Brexit Death Star, the heart of the evil empire, where think tanks of a centre-right disposition do their dastardly work to undermine civilisation. If you tell the social media conspiracy theorists that Dominic Cummings was in Tufton Street talking to me for five minutes about Scotland, then before we know it there will be a breaking story about Putin in a kilt, Brexit and the hitherto secret role of the Loch Ness monster.

Cummings asked me about Scotland, I recall. I said the Brexiteers had a problem in building Vote Leave, because Scotland would vote heavily Remain. As a Unionist, I asked if anyone had suggested a strategy to navigate this obstacle. He said, I think, that so far many people had identified the problem, but no-one had suggested a solution. He got back on his bike and continued visiting potential Leave supporters, all the while thinking about what an insurgent, winning campaign would look like.

One of Cummings strengths is that he does the groundwork and thinks much more deeply about what he is about to do than is usually the case in British politics. Military history and writing on organisational structure and human behaviour fascinates him. His blogs are sometimes too long but they are rich resources and mostly a brilliant read. You can watch his deep thinking develop.

Once he has decided that he is right, though, he sticks to it and treats amateur strategists and commentators in the media with withering contempt. I thought the 350 million for the NHS slogan in the referendum was deliberately misleading, and said so. Like many hacks I’ve had several minor spats with him – I recall taking the piss when a Dominic Cummings tweet thread hit 37 tweets. Just write an 800 word piece man, for goodness sake!

His friends are devoted to him. But he makes enemies. Some of those who were on or close to the board of Vote Leave were less than enamoured.

To put it mildly, the Cummings style is what in the aspirational 1970s people used to call “an acquired taste.” His performance – and it was performance art – in front of a parliamentary committee was so transgressive and dismissive that at the time I thought he had flipped and was intent on discrediting leave.

Of course, he was deliberately playing with Remain MPs and messing up parliamentary norms and manners to mess with their minds. It worked. Angry people in politics make mistakes. Cummings is the best wind-up merchant in the business.

Even the 350 million overstatement was deliberate, designed to make David Cameron furious and get Remain, Stronger In, during the referendum talking about the money that goes to Brussels. Here’s how it works. The voter hears the In side saying that 350 million is a lie because the real figure is, say, 150 million, and the floating voter concludes that both sides use bogus numbers to make claims. The real number is probably in the middle, they think. Which is still a lot of money going to the EU. Job done for Vote Leave.

So, what is Cummings up to now? Now that he is the key adviser – driving this government with his close friend Michael Gove, both reporting to Boris.

After the May era, when Cabinet briefings flowed like water, or wine, it is harder to get a read out.

But here’s what I think he’s up to based on conversations and on studying his past form as an extremely successful renegade operator.

Cummings, on behalf of Boris, is obviously trying to infuriate his opponents and bring this thing to a head as early as possible in September. They want Remainer MPs – determined to stop no deal – at fever pitch when Parliament returns on September 3rd.

The briefing that Boris would not resign, even in the event of losing a no confidence vote, seemed to drive some Remainer MPs totally potty. Then poor old Simon Schama, the great historian now at risk of going the full AC Grayling, started comparing Boris to Charles I.

Why try to bring this to a head early?

It has been obvious for ages that the worst scenario for Team Boris and the Tories is ending up in October being humiliated by parliament and the EU. His whole approach rests on not being Theresa May. Waiting sets up his humiliating removal and a government of national disunity (led by the anti-Union Corbyn and Sturgeon) begging the EU for an end to Brexit or a long delay. At which point the Brexit party will start polling above 40%.

Rather than inviting the end of the Tory party, Boris needs his opponents out in the open working to stop Brexit in early September. This clarifies the choice between Brexit and Remain. Meanwhile, the Remainers are split, and themselves worry that if they delay they leave it too late to stop Brexit.

Cummings denies this approach will lead to an early election, of course. His actions suggest otherwise.

When parliament returns in a fury trying to block no deal – and effectively blocking Brexit – and the EU offers nothing, Boris can say he wants to get this dealt with. One possibility is Number 10 forcing an early vote on Brexit, giving Boris the chance to say “to he’ll with this, let the country decide.”

In the resulting contest in October – think of it as Boris and the Brexiteers v divided Remainers – the Tories might prevail, if they shut down Nigel Farage for the duration.

For that reason, all the work in Number 10 and in CCHQ is about winning every Brexiteer vote and reactivating the 17.4m to tell parliament to get on with it.

To further mystify his enemies, Cummings is even speaking to TV teams door-stepping him. Today, leaving his house, on camera he had a pop at Dominic Grieve MP, the over-rated ultra-Remain lawyer.

This – Cummings making statements – is not supposed to happen in conventional politics. Advisers, political addicts who have overdosed on political documentaries such as the War Room, the story of the Clinton campaign in 1992, shut their gobs and lurk in the background trying to look enigmatic. Cummings signals that he is playing a different game with a different set of rules.

What has worked in the past for Cummings could fail this time, of course. We all have not long to wait to find out. Yet, it is a strategy that at least stands a chance of success, if that is defined as Boris winning a Tory majority and getting Britain out of the EU.

Cummings is going for it, in explosive, discombobulating, audacious and somewhat thrilling style. In its way it is all rather magnificent to see.

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