What has Johnson achieved in the US?

As Boris Johnson shook hands with a beaming Nancy Pelosi on Capitol Hill today and announced that the US has been getting “better and better” since his last visit under President Donald Trump, it appeared to be business as usual for US-UK relations, writes Mattie Brignal.  

Yet it’s been a rollercoaster ride over the last month. Joe Biden’s failure to consult key US allies, including the UK, during its retreat from Afghanistan was denounced in Parliament as “shameful” and taken as evidence that the special relationship was dead and buried.

Then, last week, came the AUKUS security pact between the UK, US and Australia – a momentous strengthening of Anglosphere defence ties to push back against an assertive China and a rejuvenation of the transatlantic alliance.

This is the mixed backdrop to Johnson’s trip to the US, the aim of which has been to strengthen US relations and drum up enthusiasm for the COP26 climate change conference in Glasgow at the end of October which, the PM said today, must be a “turning point for humanity”. 

So what has Johnson achieved so far?

On the climate front, the PM will point to several “wins”. After Johnson expressed frustration that rich countries were not pulling their weight on climate change at a UN meeting on Monday, calling for “decisive action now”,  Biden pledged to double US climate change aid for developing nations to $11.4bn a year by 2024. It’s an encouraging sign that bodes well for further commitments at COP26.

And in a surprise announcement in a pre-recorded speech to the United Nations General Assembly, China’s President Xi vowed to stop funding overseas coal-fired power stations, following heavy diplomatic pressure to do so. This is quite a coup; Beijing finances 13 per cent of the coal-fired capacity outside China.

Both these pledges – from the world’s two biggest polluters – will add momentum to Johnson’s climate cause ahead of the summit. Although back at home, rising concern about energy prices could lead to an embarrassing situation if it leads to shortages around the time of the COP26 jamboree.

The PM has also benefited from his timing. The lifting of the US travel ban from the UK (along with dozens of other countries) coincided with the first day of his visit. While the PM had little if anything to do with the decision, it’s more good news to accompany the trip which feeds into the theme of transatlantic unity.  

Yet there have also been signs that the special relationship, while still cordial, is, at its heart, transactional. In a masked meeting with Johnson in the Oval Office, the President did not deny that the UK would be at the back of the queue for a free trade deal.

While the PM downplayed Biden’s reluctance, saying the President has “a lot of other fish to fry”, he backtracked on another idea being floated 24 hours ago by his own government that the UK could join the US-Mexico-Canada free trade area instead. But there was some shift: the US is to lift its ban on importing British lamb. 

Even if the optics don’t appear good for the PM, it’s not clear that a trade deal is all that it has been cracked up to be. Indeed, many trade experts say it would worsen trade relations, particularly with regard to agribusiness. See Ben Kelly here.

By far the biggest bone of contention of Johnson’s visit has been Northern Ireland. Biden – who makes much of his Irish roots – warned Johnson not to abandon the Northern Ireland Protocol, which in effect establishes a trade border in the Irish Sea, because of fears it could inflame tensions on the island of Ireland.

George Eustice, the environment secretary, today accused Biden of not fully understanding the “very complicated” arrangement. 

For all the bonhomie and goodwill between the two leaders, the Northern Ireland issue remains a spanner in the works of the transatlantic machine.