What next? The era of the Covid globetrotter

Some Brits are – whisper it quietly – planning their escape to somewhere sunny this summer. But as the coronavirus crisis rumbles on and governments across the world decide whether to open their borders to foreigners, international travel is in a state of flux.

Many industry chiefs are bullish about a “post-Covid” tourism bounce back. Airlines have reported a surge in interest from UK customers and some experts have suggested booking early before prices start to rise. “We’re seeing the return of some level of confidence in booking travel,” says Alan French, CEO of Thomas Cook. “There was an immediate jump as soon as people finished work for Christmas and that has continued.

“In particular, older people are back in earnest. This month so far we have had more bookings for those aged over 50 than in any full month since we relaunched in September.

“Last year was mostly younger couples looking for last-minute, four and five-star breaks. Now, it’s clear there’s been a return in people who will benefit the most from the vaccine rollout planning their holidays for this summer and beyond.”

For those who haven’t had a jab but still want a holiday, there’s a way to combine the two, albeit a pricey one. For £40,000, Knightsbridge Circle, a private concierge service, has started flying its older members to the UAE and India to receive vaccinations. Founder Stuart McNeill told The Telegraph: “It’s like we’re the pioneers of this new luxury travel vaccine programme. You go for a few weeks to a villa in the sunshine, get your jabs and your certificate and you’re ready to go.”

Cheaper getaways are also seeing a resurgence. A Tui spokesperson says: “We are seeing high demand for holidays especially in the Mediterranean. Spain and Greece but also Turkey, Cyprus and Portugal will be among the most popular holiday destinations this year.”

The demand might well be there, but whether you’re looking at a luxury villa or a package holiday, all travel plans will depend on government restrictions for the foreseeable future.

“We would encourage governments to work together to promote tourism using a combination of vaccination and testing,” says French. “The early success of the vaccine programme here in the UK seems to be encouraging people to book their summer holidays and we are hopeful that travel will open up increasingly throughout the year.”

So far, however, the mood music from the government has been sombre. After the embarrassment of Grant Schapps being caught out by a government U-turn last summer, officials have been keen to downplay the possibility of a 2021 summer in the sun.

This week Dominic Raab said that it was “too early” for Britons to book a summer holiday abroad, and that it was “very difficult to plan” for international travel amid mounting restrictions. His caution was echoed by Matt Hancock, who said that people should plan for a “great British summer,” and revealed that he would be taking his annual break in Cornwall.

Spirits were further dampened by the emergence of reports that ministers are discussing tighter border controls and tougher measures including travelers having to pay for two weeks in hotel quarantine.

“There’s so much uncertainty that I think a lot of people might still be quite disappointed,” says Professor Scott Cohen, head of the department of tourism and transport at the University of Surrey. “From what I’ve seen, people who expect to be vaccinated in time are feeling more confident about booking international holidays for the summer.

“In many cases, this is going to be closer European ones. But it still remains to be seen whether those destinations are going to be welcoming international visitors by that point.”

Longer term, Cohen is optimistic about the future of tourism and doesn’t expect that those who wanted to travel the globe before the pandemic will be particularly put off by it. “I think there’s a very good possibility that people will travel as much as they did before in a couple of years’ time,” he says.

Others are less confident. Although McKinsey says there remains a “latent demand for travel” with customers who are “interested in and willing to travel again when they are allowed to do so,” the firm is predicting a slow recovery. Under its optimistic scenario, combining rapid virus containment and rebounding economies, global tourism will see a recovery to 85 per cent of 2019 volumes this year and a full recovery by 2023. The pessimistic scenario puts the figure this year at just 60 per cent.

When it comes to business travel, Cohen says that there is now an onus on companies to start considering whether to cut back on business travel. “I think there’s a balancing act to be done in terms of productivity, the health and wellbeing of the travellers themselves, their willingness to get out there and also the carbon emissions from their travel,” he says. “But I shouldn’t expect that they would push for as much business travel as before, because there’s a real economic benefit of having less.”

The shift away from office working might also accelerate the blurring of tourism and remote working, giving rise to a new breed of “digital nomad”. Some countries, including Barbados, Bermuda and the Cayman Islands already offer special international freelance visas for remote workers to encourage foreigners to come and work remotely from the Caribbean.

How will this upheaval in international travel affect the beleaguered airline industry?

Dr Darren Ellis, lecturer in air transport management at Cranfield University, thinks that most major airlines are likely to get the support they need to survive. “There are lots of different ways for airlines to either save or raise money, but government support – both direct and indirect through schemes such as furlough – is probably one of the key factors that will mean many airlines make it through this next stage of the pandemic.

“In terms of airlines failing and leaving the industry completely, it’s actually quite a hard industry to exit if you’re a national carrier,” he says.

Longer term, Ellis is sceptical of claims that our new-found love of Zoom and “digital experiences” will reduce air travel. “I think it’s overblown, this idea that we’ve now experienced what technology can do and that it’s going to have a direct and damaging impact on air travel,” he says.

“In fact, I think we could even see the opposite. I think we’re all so keen to get out there and we’ve all realised how air travel really connects the world for us.”

In other words, we’ve already caught the travel bug, and there might not be a cure.