What to prepare for in 2025
Reaction writers and friends look ahead.
Reaction returns with the daily briefing on 6 January and Iain Martin’s newsletter later that week. Until then, Happy New Year from our team.
Prepare for a tarrifying age - Tim Marshall, Reaction columnist
And lo! On the 20th day, the Orange One will rise in the West and there shall be a tarrifying age. In the East, there will be gnashing of teeth and the Dragon will trade blow for blow, but its ships will sail many oceans because it knows that a fool shows his annoyance at once, but a prudent man overlooks an insult. The Germani shall choose a new leader, but remain a House divided, and the Angel Merkel will weep. But unto them, and their neighbours, shall come gold to build a mighty army, but still the Orange One will tarrify. The Bear shall cease smiting, but only to rest a while before it smites once more. The Israelites too shall rest on their swords, but then look Eastwards, beyond the Euphrates, and hear rumours of war. The scent of Musk shall be all around and incense many, but the Geek shall inherit the Earth. And, oh Believers, Leeds United will return to the Promised Land that is known as the Premier League. And they were amazed.
Prepare for an epic Musk-Trump fallout - Rachel Cunliffe, New Statesman's associate political editor and former deputy editor at Reaction
I am done making predictions. Between Brexit, the Covid pandemic and Russia invading Ukraine, pretending to be prophetic has started to seem rather pointless.
But here’s one thing I’m virtually certain of: in 2025, best bros Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have the most epic falling out.
Oh I know they seem inseparable now, with Musk reinventing himself as Trump’s right-hand man to slash the government and using the social media site he bought as the unofficial mouthpiece for the Trump Presidency 2.0. But think about it. Do either of these men strike you as content to play second fiddle? They are both the very definition of Main Character Syndrome. Musk will get restless. Trump will get paranoid. They’ll have some disagreement over electric cars or internet regulation – and boom!
You can almost already hear the shouts of betrayal from both sides. It will get vicious: X versus the White House, MAGA versus anarcho-techno futurism. I couldn’t say who my money’s on, but it will be fascinating to watch. Stock up on popcorn now.
Bring on a new BBC boss - Jenny Hjul, Reaction columnist
If there is any justice in the world, BBC boss Tim Davie will be looking for a new job in the New Year as his management mishaps finally catch up with him. Having presided over the Huw Edwards scandal, not only keeping the disgraced presenter on full pay but giving him a rise after he was arrested on suspicion of child sex offences, the director-general was also in post as allegations against Greg Wallace mounted and were ignored.
Trust in the corporation’s leadership was already at a low point following the bizarre sacking and then reinstating of a bunch of seasoned female journalists, including Martine Croxall and Jane Hill, compounding the BBC’s reputation for treating, and paying, women employees unfairly. To cap all this, Davie somehow sanctioned the exit of the sainted Mishal Husain from the BBC. For that crime alone, he will have to go.
In happier media news, I predict Spectator editor Michael Gove will become a father again in 2025.
‘Twil be a fecund year for opera - Gerald Malone, Reaction columnist
Don Donald opens on Jan 20th as a revival in Washington. Fresh cast and complete rewrite. Leading family character – faithful servant Jared Kushner out! RFK Junior, a health profundo, in!
Insisting on bringing his own aria, Un verme mi ha mangiato il cervello! (A worm has eaten my brain) centre stage, RFK will be written out of the plot before the first interval.
Other members of the cast may suffer a similar fate. Especially new “bestie” Elon Musk, likely to become ElonX. No room for two Dons in DC.
French and German productions face cast change crises. Director Macron finds anyone playing Premier ministre becomes mysteriously indisposed after the opening aria.
In Berlin, war has broken out among members of the cast. They refuse to sing with each other. Bundestag 25, scheduled for September now brought forward to February. There will be no chorus of approval. Olaf Scholz is unlikely to even make an audition for the role of Chancellor.
And in Britain, costumes for Sir Keir Starmer’s Suits You Sir relaunch will no longer be Ali-sponsored. Enjoy the ongoing “spectacle”.
Britain is heading for the bleakest of years - Maggie Pagano, Reaction’s Associate Editor
We are heading for the worst of all worlds in 2025: the spectre of stagflation. And it's a ghastly outlook in which inflation is rising again, the economy is contracting and interest rates stay high. It’s the worst outcome possible, reminiscent of the 1970s when the country was crippled by strikes, a shrinking economy and runaway public debt prompting the Labour government to go cap in hand to the IMF.
Yet it needn’t be like this. Labour came to power just as the economy was on the turn with interest rates on their way down. Rather than build on this, Labour - out of sheer spite - talked down the economy with its misery, saddled business with £25 billion of NI taxes and drove energy prices higher with more ridiculous net zero subsidies. And the impact? Consumers have pulled in their spending horns, SMEs are suffering and shedding employees while some of our most successful entrepreneurs and wealthiest tycoons - critical to creating the next generation of businesses - are heading overseas.
Which is why the financial markets are voting with their feet. The gap between ten-year UK government bonds and that of German bunds is at the highest it's been in 34 years - greater than during the Liz Truss debacle. The gilt yield is now higher than France and Italy, not a good look for a government promising stability. Make no mistake, it's a gap which will open the door even wider to a shake-up in our political parties. Nigel Farage's Reform is already benefiting from the growing disillusion with the mainstream parties, and is likely to continue to do so if Elon Musk is on board. Follow the money, and the data.
A predictably unpredictable year - David Waywell, Reaction columnist
The year 2025. The only thing I predict with any confidence is the number of the year and I’m even 50/50 about that. I might put a fiver down at William Hill on it turning out to be 2026 instead...
Beyond that, it’s hard to look beyond Trump who is so unpredictable that I think it’s probably unwise to be too specific. I think it will be chaos, lots of froth, very little substance. I think infighting will be the theme of the administration. How long will Musk last? How long RFK? I’m more concerned with AI and the speed of developments. By focussing on the big names who dominate the news, we are increasingly likely to forget everybody else, being essentially you and I.
To put it simply: the more that people struggle to live, the more people will need to remember why life is worth living. The challenge in the biggest sense is around the viability of capitalism in a climate where customers are increasingly wary of a system that appears to have forgotten one half of the deal. Water here in the UK is an obvious point of friction but it’s hardly the only one. The murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson by Luigi Mangione exposed some ugly truths about people’s attitudes towards corporate America. The great paradox here is that America has also voted for a government that will increase those tensions. And history shows us that those tensions rarely resolve easily or peacefully.
Hmm. So the "Reaction" columnists are hoping for a break down in relations between Musk and Trump, 'get the popcorn', because that would be better than getting on top of US Federal spending and the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. I'm on board with "reaction" responding to things that happen, but simply hoping they will fall apart strikes me as a little pathetic.