When Boris met Olaf

In his first visit to Britain as Chancellor, Olaf Scholz met Boris Johnson in London today as Berlin weathers a storm of criticism for its reluctance to impose an embargo on Russian oil and gas.

In a press conference following the meeting, the two men put on a united front and Johnson commended Scholz for the “seismic decisions” his government had already taken “to move Germany away from Russian hydrocarbons.” The PM added: “We cannot transform our respective energy systems overnight.”

According to Johnson, he and Scholz have decided on measures “ensuring that our energy security cannot be threatened by a rogue state.” This includes an agreement “to maximise the potential of the North Sea and collaborate on renewables.”

The PM also announced that the UK will send another £100m worth of military equipment to Ukraine. 

Despite the platitudes and the united front, it seems the meeting hasn’t led to any firmer commitments on a Russian energy embargo. 

So far, Germany – amongst other EU members – has agreed to ban Russian coal, but it is yet to commit to any oil or gas embargo. 

The UK has pledged to ban Russian coal and oil by the end of the year, but is yet to set a date for a gas.

Germany is in a particularly sticky position. Roughly half of its gas and coal imports, and about one third of its oil imports, originate from Russia.

These continual purchases are keeping Moscow’s economy afloat. Since the start of the war, the EU has provided Ukraine with €1bn of military assistance, while spending €36bn on Russian energy. 

Understandably, the recently elected German Chancellor is fearful that a full embargo would trigger a recession in Germany and alienate his electorate.  

Robert Habeck, the economy minister, said last month that cutting off Russian energy risked sparking social unrest in Germany.

But a new ARD poll suggests the German public may be more in favour of a full embargo than its politicians would have us believe. 

According to ARD, support for an immediate halt to Russian gas and oil imports has increased since mid-March, from 44% to 50%. And 45% of those surveyed – an 18% increase since March – said they believe the government is not going far enough to help Ukrainians in light of Russia’s attack. 

Interestingly, support for an embargo has increased in despite growing energy fears over this same period: 76% – a 10% increase – said they are concerned about cuts in Germany’s gas and energy supply. 

It seems the German government might be underestimating the personal sacrifices its population are willing to make to support Ukraine. 

Although Scholz might well be asking himself: how many of those currently in favour of a full embargo would still be in board in six months’ time, once the true consequences of cutting Russian energy became apparent?