Who is Douglas Ross, and can he save the Union?

Douglas Ross has a lot to do and not a lot of time to do it. As new leader of the Scottish Conservatives, he must re-energise a party gripped by inertia since the departure of Ruth Davidson last year; make the case for the Union as voters seem to be drifting toward independence; and do so while maintaining the party’s distinctness from London – all in time for the Scottish Parliament elections in May.

So who is the 37-year-old charged with the task? Douglas Ross remains relatively obscure. He began his political career as a councillor for Moray, just west of his native Aberdeen, when he was 24 years old. After defeats at general and Scottish Parliamentary elections, he arrived at the Scottish Parliament in 2016. He was then elected to the Commons as MP for Moray in 2017, during the leadership of Theresa May.

His most significant move to date remains his resignation from his post at the Scotland office last May. Dominic Cummings’s actions in Durham compromised his position in Johnson’s Government: “As a government minister you should be able to defend the government policy and what the government are saying and I wasn’t able to do that”, he told the BBC at the time.

That willingness to stand apart from London may prove attractive to Scottish voters. Ross now supports Brexit, despite campaigning for Remain in 2016. However, he rejected May’s deal in Parliament, ultimately choosing to back Johnson for the leadership only after his favourite, the Remainer Mark Harper, was knocked out.

Ross can play other elements to his advantage, too. A farmer by profession and part-time football referee, he can channel the sleeves-rolled-up sentiment of his spiritual predecessor and temporary vice-consul, Ruth Davidson. He will seek, as she did, to communicate the Scottish Conservatives’ distinct brand: a pragmatic, patriotic Unionism supported by liberal social values.

The responsibility for conveying that message does not, for the time being, rest on Ross alone. Rishi Sunak’s arrival in Scotland last week signals a UK-wide attempt to communicate the Union’s achievements during the pandemic – particularly the UK-funded spending programmes. The coming months can expect a greater level of communication between London and the Scottish party in that coordinated effort.

As the lockdown continues to fuel nationalist rivalry, furthermore, the government is taking no chances. Ruth Davidson is back to help, and a Daily Mail article co-written with Ross makes clear they will be running on a “joint ticket” for next May’s elections. It’s a necessary strategy, even though it undermines Ross’s efforts to develop an independent profile as leader – the UK government is desperate to revive Davidson’s no-nonsense charisma. As John McLellan wrote in The Scotsman last week, “most Scottish delegates regarded Jackson [Carlaw] as a solid caretaker until the real successor to Ruth won the leadership election… but no obvious candidate emerged.”

Whether or not Ross is the obvious candidate now, the next few months will test him greatly. It is clear a lot has changed since Davidson’s departure: first, the nationalists are more confident than ever before. Both Ross and Davidson acknowledge that their party must be “knocked back into shape” to take on the challenge.

Secondly, the party must find a way to square Brexit with Scottish voters and diffuse the “dragged-out-of-Europe” narrative that has so effectively buttressed nationalist politics since 2016. As a rural man, Ross may be well positioned to do so – better even than Davidson from the post-industrial Central Belt. Ross has opposed compromise with the EU on fisheries in an effort to integrate Brexit with oft-neglected rural interests. Emphasising the benefits of withdrawal from the Common Agricultural Policy, the same stance offers to consolidate those voters alienated by the SNP’s perceived neglect of farming and rural interests – the memory of the IT subsidies debacle in 2018 lingers for many of them.

As a Commons backbencher with no direct involvement with the Scottish Parliament, however, these are messages that Ross cannot convey by himself. Aside from his stint at the Scotland Office, he also has little governmental or managerial experience to speak of. Once Davidson gives up her MSP position for the Lords in May, furthermore, he’ll be on his own. Only then will Ross emerge as an independent voice – if he lasts long enough.

Ross’s appointment provides a necessary boost to what has felt like a defeated party. But time is running out. SNP failings – on school exams, and sloppy attempts to reform hate-crime legislation – must be seized upon if electoral gains are to be made next May. More is at stake in that effort than ever before, and only time will tell if Ross is the candidate for the job.