Why does no one think England can win the Euros?

Fingers tightly crossed, the timing is good. Whereas the qualifying rounds were, like this year’s Rugby Six Nations, perforce played in the absence of fans, the pandemic has retreated far enough to allow the Euros to be played in stadia which, if not full, are at least to some extent stocked. 

There were murmurings years ago when it was decided to spread the tournament across a number of countries, rather than staging this carnival of football in a single host country, as had been usual. Now, it seems as if this may have been a divinely inspired decision. Just imagine how it might have been if you had a single host country that was suddenly experiencing a huge unexpected surge in Covid cases. As it is, we have matches in eleven cities: Amsterdam, Baku, Bucharest, Budapest, Copenhagen, Glasgow, London, Munich, Seville, Rome and St Petersburg.

Of course, spreading the tournament around means that there is less feeling of a Carnival as fans from all over the continent foregather and mingle with each other. It will be more like the later stages of the club tournaments – the Champions Cup and Europa Cup. But considering what might have been – cancellation of the tournament or matches everywhere played behind closed doors, we can count ourselves lucky. In any case, even in normal times (if you can remember what these are) hundred of millions more people follow the World Cup or the Euros remotely and watch matches on television or pocket devices than actually congregate in the host country.

Who will win? Well, there is less braggadocio from sections of the English media than is usual, which is a bit odd because Gareth Southgate’s team looks not only talented but better-organised than has often been the case in these big tournaments – ever since 1966. Yet, a poll of 14 BBC pundits on the website found not even one prepared to forecast an English triumph. This unusual modesty strikes me as a bit odd for two reasons. First, England did better than expected in the World Cup in Russia two years ago, reaching the semi-final, and given the consistent and intelligent management since then, it is surely quite reasonable to believe that they can improve on that record. 

Second, all three of England’s matches in the Group stage will be played at home. They should finish top of their group, defeating Croatia, Scotland and the Czech Republic. There is no minnow to embarrass them, as Iceland did in the last Euros in France – unless you are unkind enough to class Scotland as a minnow. The dominance of English clubs in European competition is, of course, almost irrelevant since the Manchester clubs, Liverpool and the three big London ones will rarely field more than three or four English players, sometimes even fewer. Nevertheless, players like Manchester City’s Phil Foden and Raheem Sterling have the experience of winning big games in league and cup, while any country that can field Marcus Rashford, Jack Grealish and Harry Kane must command respect. 

Southgate’s squad is also older in experience of top-level football than it is in years. I would guess they have a better chance than in any tournament since 1996 when England lost to Germany in the final of the Euros. Steve Clarke, the Scotland coach/manager says that England ought to reach the semi-final stage of any tournament, and once there anything can happen; “When you get that far you think you can win it.”

Clarke has become something of a national hero since becoming the first coach to lead Scotland to qualify for either the Euros or the World Cup since 1998. This is a considerable achievement for a man whose appointment was not greeted with resounding cheers; he had been managing Kilmarnock previously. In fact, Clarke was both experienced and knowledgeable. In one sense – an important one – he has been more fortunate than his predecessors this century, who were often scraping the English Championship or even lower leagues in search of Scotland-qualified players. Clarke, however, has his captain Andy Robertson who has won titles and cups with Liverpool and others from leading Premiership clubs: Scott McTominay (Manchester United), Kieran Tierney (Arsenal), John McGinn (Aston Villa). All the same, Scotland have never got beyond the Group stage of any World or European Cup, despite often fielding great players with the experience of winning the biggest matches. Something always went wrong. Perhaps this time it won’t, but we should remember that Croatia, like England, reached the World Cup semi-final two years ago.

Neither Northern Ireland nor the Republic qualified this year, which is somewhat unusual nowadays. Wales are here, in a group with Italy, Switzerland and Turkey. Italy will be expected to top this group, but since there are six groups of four and you need to have sixteen teams in the first knock out round, three teams will qualify from four of the six groups. Wales should manage to do this, while Scotland, with determination and a few strokes of luck, may also progress from theirs.

So who will win? Of the BBC pundits, 11 out of 14 picked France, the reigning World champions. Two went for Belgium and one (Chris Waddle) for Italy. Were they all carefully trying to dodge fate by not nominating England? France is in a tough group with Portugal (the holders), Germany and Hungary. They surely have class enough to get out of the always nerve-provoking first stage, but, though Germany has been in the doldrums, they almost always come good in the big tournaments. And there must be many, not only in or around Old Trafford who would like to see Cristiano Ronaldo, arguably the greatest European forward of this century, with another Cup-winners medal. For my part, if compelled to bet, I would put my money on Kevin De Bruyne’s Belgium.

A more important wish is for a tournament of high quality to cheer us all up, no Covid-enforced cancellations, and very few matches settled by penalty shoot-outs. We should be so lucky.