Why is the SNP at war with itself?

The civil war in the Scottish National Party is heating up so much that for those not in Scotland it is difficult to keep up with who hates who and why. How might the warfare affect the party’s performance in the upcoming Scottish elections, due 6 May, and the future of the party generally?

At the heart of the bitter divide in the party lie fierce arguments over three key issues.

The first is the debate over whether if the SNP wins a majority in the upcoming Scottish elections it should move to hold another independence referendum, even if the current Westminster government refuses to give Scotland permission to do so. Here the SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon’s more cautious instincts have clashed with the more gung-ho elements of the party, broadly aligned with former party leader Alex Salmond. Moves by Sturgeon, in response to this pressure, to signal she might be open to this more radical possibility seems to have done little to calm those who see her as too cautious.

The second key issue is the role played by Sturgeon in the handling of the sexual assault allegations made against former leader Alex Salmond, for which he was subsequently found not guilty after a trial. Salmond and his supporters claims that the allegations made against him were part of a conspiracy led by Sturgeon who sought to sideline him politically so that he could not return to the Scottish parliament. Salmond and his supporters sense of vindication has only grown as Holyrood continues its inquiry – with hearings next week into whether Sturgeon broke the Ministerial Code by misleading the Scottish parliament over when she was first aware of these allegations. The inquiry itself seems likely to prove politically explosive.

Finally, there is an intra-party fight over trans rights adding to the acrimony. Under Sturgeon the party has moved to implement a gender recognition law which would make it easier for transgender persons to officially change their gender – only to run up against a growing pushback by certain elements of the party who argues it endangers women’s rights.

The latest, and most dramatic, move in this feud came on Monday with the expulsion of Joanna Cherry QC from the party’s Westminster frontbench. Cherry had been one of the party’s leading lights playing a key role in Remain’s legal fights over Brexit and was widely thought of as a potential successor to Sturgeon.

Yet, on key issues she differed from her party leader. Cherry vocally made the case for holding a referendum regardless of whether Westminster approved or not, is sympathetic to Salmond, and was vocally critical of SNP policy on trans rights. Since her removal from the frontbench, and following a threat she received over her stance, her Twitter rows with fellow SNP MPs on this issue have only grown more bitter. Still, holding a seat on the party’s National Executive Committee – alongside many allies who hold similar views – she’s in a good position to keep making trouble for Sturgeon.

Still, the real fireworks should come next week north of the border with the next phase of the official inquiry into the Scottish government’s handling of harassment claims against Salmond. Sturgeon in hot water here with allegations she breached ministerial code by misleading the Scottish parliament about her role in the inquiry. She has already admitted that her original claim that she only heard about the investigation into Salmond 2 April 2018 was in fact false. She claims to have “forgotten” that she had in fact heard about the inquiry four days earlier.

If the inquiry finds that Sturgeon did indeed breach the ministerial code by misleading the Scottish Parliament, she will face pressure to resign with a recent YouGov poll showing 50% of the public would support this. Even if she isn’t found guilty of breaching code an independent investigation by James Hamilton QC into the matter might yet.

Regardless of the result the entire inquiry promises to be embarrassing for the SNP with a series of ugly skirmishes already taking place. The most significant is over the refusal of Peter Murrell, Sturgeon’s husband and the SNP’s Chief Executive, to reappear before the inquiry. The Scottish Tories have struck hard on this point proposing a vote to legally compel Murrell to appear again. If SNP MSPs, over whom Sturgeon seems to hold an unbroken sway, refuse to back this vote it will only intensify suspicions that they have something to hide. Meanwhile, Salmond’s testimony next week in which he will lay out his claims of conspiracy against him will inevitably be explosive.

What does this herald for the party and the upcoming election in May?. Under normal circumstances voters punish parties that are obviously divided. However, polls show, even as the party civil war has grown more acrimonious, the SNP consistently attracting over 50% the vote.

Rumblings of a new party being founded by a group of SNP breakaways also seems to have faded. With a swathe of retirements among senior SNP figures many of the party’s MSPs seem to be keeping quiet in hope of promotion, avoiding the sort of Cherry blow up seen in Westminster. Even if some more radical supporters of Salmond try to bolt to the Independence for Scotland Party it would be difficult for them to quickly build enough support to gain seats, even in Scotland’s more proportional voting system.

Still, the drama that has convulsed Scottish politics has left the political situation more fluid than it has been in decades. A surprise – the SNP losing a few points in support and falling short of an overall majority – cannot be ruled out. But if it happens it may be because the SNP has made an even bigger blunder. The roll-out of the vaccine in Scotland is markedly slower in Scotland and the UK government has offered to help. This, voters may notice.