Will Carney’s Canadian election gamble pay off?
The Canadian Prime Minister is likely to wage a campaign centred on the twin threats of tariffs and Trump.
Just in case you hadn’t had enough of knife-edge elections in North America, Canada’s new prime minister, Mark Carney, called a snap election on Sunday. In doing so, Carney, who has been in office for less than two weeks, has gambled on framing the contest as one in which Canada’s future and sovereignty are at stake. It is likely that he will seek to wage a campaign battle centred on the twin threats of tariffs and Trump from now until polling day on 28 April.
It should be a fascinating ride. Carney’s rise to the premiership has dramatically turned his party’s political fortunes around. The Liberals were in the doldrums in the polls after his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, had become embroiled in a series of bizarre and unedifying scandals. To make matters worse, Trudeau had also expended a lot of political capital on a divisive (not to mention inflationary) carbon tax.
Meanwhile, the leader of the opposition and Canada’s Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, began to speak of a “lost Liberal decade”. Poilievre argued that Trudeau had inflicted a “radical, borderless globalist ideology” on the country, and had become woefully out of touch with Canadians’ concerns over classic bread-and-butter issues such as immigration and law and order. As a consequence, the tail end of Trudeau’s premiership saw the Conservatives sitting with a comfortable lead in the polls. In October-November 2024, one poll put Poilievre’s party on 43% of the vote – a convincing 22 points ahead of their liberal rivals.
Then two events in January changed everything: a beleaguered Trudeau announced his resignation, and Donald Trump returned to the White House in a triumphant and bullish mood. Even before his inauguration on 20 January, Trump was talking of hitting Canadian goods with tariffs and expressing his belief that Canada ought to become the US’ 51st state through “economic force”.
The rhetoric emanating from Washington has provided the context for a stunning revival of liberal fortunes in Ottawa. One Ipsos poll from the end of February showed the Liberals with a slight lead over the Conservatives for the first time since 2021. And a poll of polls by CBC News, updated today, suggests that Carney could even win enough seats to form a small majority in Canada’s Federal Parliament.
The entire Canadian political debate has been upended by Trump’s policies in recent months: an election that was supposed to be about the cost of living and tackling crime - two areas where Poilievre’s conservatives had built up a strong position - will now be about defending the nation and its sovereignty in the face of Trump’s threats.
In this context, both Carney and his challenger to become Canada’s next prime minister, Poilievre, are currently jockeying to present themselves as the best candidate to stand up for Canada’s interests and take on the American president. Carney’s campaign accuses Poilievre of being “Trump-light”. Poilievre’s people hit back, describing the Prime Minister as “just like Justin”.
So far, the polls suggest that this battle is being won by Carney. It seems that Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, is trusted more to stand up to Trump while also navigating the economic fallout from the US-Canada trade war. By contrast, Poilievre is seen as being more likely to concede to Trump’s demands.
Under changed geopolitical circumstances, Poilievre’s robust takedowns of the Liberals’ “globalist” ideology now open him up to accusations of being too ideologically close to Trump. This perception may have been reinforced by Elon Musk’s gushing public praise for Poilievre’s speeches and media interactions. One recent interview with the Conservative leader was reposted by Musk on his social media platform, X, with the comment: “Another masterpiece”.
Added to all this is a certain incumbency advantage, whereby Canadians have rallied around their Prime Minister at a time of crisis. Carney has also profited from how the Trump effect has played into Canada’s regional politics. The president’s tariff policies have caused many in Canada’s majority-Francophone province, Quebec, to re-evaluate their support for the pro-independence Bloc Québécois; the data suggest that Carney and the Liberals have been the chief beneficiaries of the ensuing Québécois boost.
There is still a long campaign ahead, and only a fool would predict how the twists and turns of an election campaign might affect the end result. And even if Carney’s gamble pays off and the Canadian electorate bestows his party with a majority, he will still have an almighty challenge on his hands. Trump’s tariffs will not go away soon, nor will the challenge they pose to Canada’s prosperity and sovereignty.
Still, there are signs that Carney, although an inexperienced politician, is quickly learning to pursue a pragmatic approach. He has already scrapped his predecessor’s carbon tax, and has begun to pivot towards the United Kingdom, European Union and Australia in search of a counterbalance to Trump’s America on security. The Prime Minister has announced a C$6bn partnership with Australia to develop an arctic radar system, and has begun exploring the possibility of signing major defence deals with Italy.
There is, also, a belated recognition that Canada will need to significantly increase its defence spending, which currently falls well below the NATO 2% target.
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