Tories could find excuses. In each case, the by-election was held in difficult circumstances. Voters, who do not appreciate unnecessary by-elections, are inclined to treat them as referendums on the question: “Does the government deserve a kick in the pants?” (“Pants” is putting it politely.) So it is not surprising that there was a large anti-government swing. This does not mean that it would be replicated in a general election.
Equally, as Tories are quick to point out, this was much more than just a crossing of the floor from their party to Labour. You could argue that the real winner was – in Laura Kuessenberg’s term – the “sofa vote”. A lot of people just couldn’t be bothered. Even so, it is impossible to disagree with John Curtice’s conclusion. The Tories have an electoral mountain to climb.
