Parliament asserting itself is good news

Slowly but surely Parliament is asserting itself over the Executive. The House of Commons – which voted to approve the holding of the Brexit referendum and the triggering of Article 50 – is using its power to place constraints on the government and make requirements of ministers as the day of the UK’s departure draws ever closer.

Barely discernable in clear cut form the emergence of new alliances emphasising common interests are smashing traditional party structures and traditional allegiances. So far these alliances have mainly been on the Brexiteer side, but now a bigger grouping is beginning to emerge and cohere from the Parliamentary fog – the one that says we need a Brexit deal or we have no Brexit.

Not since the House of Commons wrested control of the government from Charles I in the 17th century have we seen anything quite like what is now going on at Westminster, and it is utterly fascinating.

Of course the Prime Minister is the Prime Minister, wielding immense power and enormous patronage. Never underestimate the clout of any Prime Minister, but unprecedented restrictions are now beginning to be placed around the occupant of No 10. It will be a disconcerting experience for those directly involved and an absolutely riveting constitutional and political event to watch.

Two things seem to be clear. One – that there are sufficient MPs and Ministers who regard a No Deal Brexit so unacceptable as to make it politically impossible for Mrs May, or any Prime Minister, to preside over such an event.

If you accept that as a fact, and there is a respectable body of opinion that does not, then you move to the second thing that seems clear – that MPs need to find a Brexit Deal a good majority of them can support, which can then be taken to the European Commission for approval by the 27 governments of the European Union.

Mrs May is resolutely sticking to the deal she has negotiated and plans to take it to the House of Commons next week to be voted on. If, as seems currently likely, she loses that vote it is expected she will head off back to Brussels the next day to try to squeeze out more concessions in the hope that this will be enough for her to win sufficient support for her deal to pass. With both Ken Clarke and John Redwood saying her deal is dead this seems a tall order, but it would be foolish to underestimate a Prime Minister who has won much respect for her tenacity. Now the House of Commons has set the Prime Minister a deadline of three days to return to Parliament in the event of her deal being voted down.

There is no reason to think the European Commission will offer any meaningful concessions while it remains unclear what the House of Commons will accept or more to the point what is politically deliverable in Britain. It seems increasingly likely that a series of Commons votes will be held to determine where the majority of Commons opinion rests. These indicative votes could be held on a free vote basis and should cover all options available. The first one should be to determine whether or not MPs will support a Brexit with no deal. This is crucial because this then sets the scene for what follows. If they do support a no deal Brexit then we should simply move forward with preparations and everyone can sort themselves out accordingly. If the Commons does not support a no deal Brexit then we need to sort out which of the available options is the way they wish to go.

In this scenario, which would mean Mrs May’s perfectly sensible deal being rejected by MPs as well as an EU departure looming without an agreement, MPs would opt for some sort of closer affiliation to the EU by being, for example, inside the Customs Union, or whatever it is they vote for.

There will be plenty of people who level the charge that this is a Brexit sellout and a betrayal of the referendum vote.

In the UK, however, Parliament is sovereign and if we want to change the way Parliament votes then we should vote for different MPs at a General Election. In the meantime Parliament is increasingly taking charge of the Executive and in time we, the people, will have our chance to assert ourselves over those we chose to send to Parliament. That is how it should be.