Is Pete Buttigieg the answer as Democrats tie themselves in knots over hugs?

Is America ready for its first gay president? Is America even ready for a president who might be too eager for a hug?

American politics is in a strange place – or not so strange if you always expected the Democratic Party to tie itself up in an unfeasibly complicated series of knots about the simplest of problems.

That problem is unseating the singularly least popular American president in that country’s history. It’s about defeating a man whose troubles are only going to get worse in the run-up to the 2020 election. As I predicted last week, the media went too early with the narrative that the Mueller business was done and dusted. Just today, The New York Times reports that members of Mueller’s team have complained about the way William Barr mischaracterised the report, which they still say contains considerable peril for the President. Bad news is going to harry Trump all the way to the next election, yet the Democrats are doing what only Democrats seem capable of: having a discussion about “personal space”.

Vice President Joe Biden’s campaign has already hit rough waters if that metaphor is even possible when the campaign still sits in dry dock. In the era of #MeToo, old Handy Joe is suddenly seen as an electoral liability. Republicans look idly on as their President admits to grabbing women by their intimate parts but, with the Democrats, it’s a problem of a man apparently invading a woman’s personal space when going in for a hug. Biden has promised that he’s listened (always a good word for liberals to latch onto) and to do better in the future. Yet that touchy-feely stuff was meant to be his great skill. Biden’s ability to be personable, especially when going one-to-one with the electorate, is what sets him apart from most modern American politicians. It also made him the complete opposite of Hillary and, arguably, the best chance to beat Trump.

Biden’s problem, though, might simply be that he’s old and the hugging is simply a reminder that he’s a creature of a less “woke” era of politics. He’s 76 and would be 78 when elected, making him by eight years, the oldest US president. Democrats are not meant to be bothered by such things. Ageism is one of the “-isms” they fret over yet, it seems, are just as likely to be culpable. That’s why they are having their heads turned by younger candidates like the little-known mayor of South Bend, Indiana.

Pete Buttigieg (pronounced “Bud-idge-idge”) is winning compliments from everywhere and it’s understandable why. There’s much to like about the young mayor. A Harvard graduate and Rhodes Scholar, he served seven months in Afghanistan in Naval intelligence, where he furthered his passion for learning languages. He taught himself Norwegian in addition to Spanish, Italian, Maltese, Arabic, Dari, and French, and has a superhero’s ability to turn up in moments of crisis to offer translations services. Stories about his kindness have spread like urban legends (or, if you prefer, urban legends packaged by a clever campaign team) and even his unusual name is proving a virtue. The fact that a person must learn it in order to say it makes it even more memorable once they have. He has raised a not insubstantial $7 million for his campaign in the first quarter of the year. Democrats love him and polls suggest that 70% of Americans have no problem with a gay presidential candidate.

The fact that Buttigieg is gay should not be a problem but this is still America, a conservative nation fringed with liberals. 70% sounds impressive but that means that a sizable 30% of Americans still think sexuality is an issue. America is very roughly divided evenly between Republicans and Democrats we can further assume that nearly all Democrats are untroubled by a candidate’s sexuality. That means 60% of Republicans might be swayed by the issue. You might, of course, argue that it’s likely that the 60% consists of the deeply conservative Republicans that make up Trump’s base. Buttigieg would never win them over but neither would any Democrat.

Yet that is the question that Democrats must ask themselves. If the quality of the candidate is high enough, will that portion of swing or reluctant voters who decide elections actually swing or turn out to vote for that candidate? America’s elections are trending towards narrow margins. The last single digit “landslide” was Obama’s (winning by over 7% in 2008, Clinton by over 8% in 1996) but for the real landslides, we have to look back at Reagan who won by over 18% in 1984. American politics is increasingly about polarized electorates and about clever targeting of seats, which meant that Trump could lose the popular vote by 2% but still win through the electoral college.

So, if the margins are tight, isn’t it better for Democrats to nominate the person who has the best chances of being elected? Or does the logic run the other way? Given Trump’s unpopularity, maybe this is the chance to elect somebody who is his complete opposite. Clever, articulate, young. Perhaps even a socialist? Or perhaps even gay rather than socialist?

That’s where Buttigieg stands a chance of emerging from the field. Crucially and perhaps cleverly, he is moderate in a party that increasingly looks like it’s listing to the left. The impact of Bernie Sanders changed things in 2016 and the feeling (perhaps mistaken) that America is leaning left is growing. This time around Sanders raised $18 million in his first six weeks and even if he’s not commanding as much media attention, expect him to be still in the running once the field thins. Even somebody like Kamala Harris, who might have been thought to be on the right of the field, has been edging left. After Biden, she might be considered the front runner having raised $12 million in the first two months of the year. That leaves the other big name, Beto O’Rourke ($9.4 million raised in the first 18 days of his campaign), who has been staking out a more centrist ground. He also continues to do what he seems to do best: rolling up his sleeves as he meets ordinary American voters. If that sounds like a mean gripe about the former Representative from Texas, it isn’t. Beto is the one candidate here come comes the closest to matching Bernie Sander’s ability to generate a grassroots movement. The fact that he is also centrist makes him a good prospect, so long as he can stop undermining his own campaign with moments of stupidity such as live streaming himself through a session with his dental hygienist.

Biden, Bernie, Harris, Beto and Buttigieg: the Democrats have the opportunity to fashion a strong ticket for 2020 yet also a chance to mess it up in a way that’s never been seen in a context quite as strange as this. Bernie & Buttigieg for 2020? Odder things have happened and sometimes those odd things can put Donald Trump in the White House.