The race to become Britain’s third Prime Minister in 2022 and the fifth since the Tories came to power a decade ago is now officially open – and the field has been narrowed down.
After a last-minute emergency change to the Conservative party’s rules earlier this evening, the leadership contest has been slashed back so that only three candidates can stand.
Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the influential 1922 committee, together with the party, have decided that potential candidates to succeed Liz Truss have to have a threshold of 100 nominations by Monday at 2pm.
The aim is that the party’s 357 MPs can pick the winning candidate without having to go back to the 160,000 members for a final vote. But if they do choose two candidates, then there will be what’s being called an “indicative” vote so that members have a better sense of who the parliamentary party wants to be elected. The members will then be able to take part in an online ballot, with the decision taken by next Friday.
At least four candidates are known to want to put their hats into the ring – or should that be cauldron. They are Rishi Sunak, Penny Mordaunt, Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman. Both Ben Wallace and Jeremy Hunt have ruled themselves out.
But the new 100 nomination threshold makes it unlikely that either Badenoch or Braverman will get over the line. There is another potential contender however, and that’s Boris Johnson who is said to be deciding whether to have a go at the mother of all comebacks.
For now, Sunak is the favourite with Coral putting odds on him at 4/5 with Mordaunt in second place at 5/2 and Boris at 3/1. Badenoch is at 20/1.
While it’s been an open secret that Truss would have to go after her disastrous mini-budget, when the execution came, it was quick and lethal. Her decision to finally quit came after a visit to No 10 this morning from Sir Graham Brady, the influential head of the 1922 committee.
Brady had the numbers to show her: the list of mutinous backbenchers who no longer had any confidence in her premiership was swelling by the hour. It was a mutiny hastened by last night’s chaotic scenes in the Commons over the fracking vote, which led to the resignation, and then the un-resignation of her chief whip and her deputy whip – see The Hound.
By 1.30pm today Truss was reading out her resignation letter outside No 10. It was a terse but regretful letter, explaining how she no longer had the mandate of the party on which she was elected to carry out the reforms she believed would lead to a more dynamic economy. That the pound rose to $1.13 and the FTSE 100 share index gained – albeit only a few points – on news of her departure was perhaps the worst indictment of all.
If you thought that the shenanigans at Westminster have been chaotic over the last few weeks, watch out for skulduggery this weekend. Now the serious deal-making begins and the odds are that Sunak and Mordaunt are the ones who will get over the 100 threshold and may have to slug it out with party members.
Recent polls have suggested members had buyers’ remorse over choosing Truss but nor were they over the moon about Sunak either. This rather indicates that Mordaunt’s chances of making it to No 10 – especially if she were to bring Jeremy Hunt’s supporters on side to help provide the right economic credentials – are higher than before. PM might yet make it to PM.
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